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Category: commercial real estate (161)

Jan

San Francisco Tech News: Yelp HQ building possible sale for $1000 a foot

Source: San Francisco Business Times
By: Riley McDermid
Date Posted: January 27, 2016

Landmark tech HQ building could fetch as much as $1,000 a foot in sale

The San Francisco landmark PacBell building could fetch as much as $1,000 square feet when it is sold, reports The Registry, a record price that points to how high office rents currently are – and the value they are bringing to commercial real estate sales.

At 286,092 square feet of office space and 9,000 square feet of retail, that could add up to $295 million for the building located at 140 Montgomery, which currently boasts tenants such as Yelp and Lumosity.

The Registry’s report posits those high rents that could drive up the sale price of the building, which Wilson Meany and Stockbridge Capital Group bought from AT&T in 2007.

“One of the reasons for the high sales price is the current condition of the rents in the property. The office building has rents that are closer to current market rents than any other office asset in the city at this time,” The Registry reports. “Should 140 New Montgomery achieve the $1,000 per square foot sale price, it would place the asset very close to replacement cost, which some sources in San Francisco have pegged to be close to $1,000 per square foot.”

“Yelp had signed an eight-year lease in 2011 to occupy nine floors in the building with an annual rental rate that began at $54 a square foot and is planned to increase to $66.41 a foot by the eighth year,” The Registry reports.

“The landlord granted an initial $5.8 million, or $60 a foot, tenant-improvement allowance, according to records filed by Yelp with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Lumosity signed a lease in 2013 to occupy 36,000 square feet, or three floors, in the building.”

Eastdil Secured, the listing agent for the property, didn’t return a request for comment from the Business Times. Wilson Meany confirmed to The Registry that the building is up for sale.

Link to Business Times Article: Tech HQ Could Fetch $1000 a foot in sale

Link to The Registry Report: 140 Montgomery

Jan

San Francisco CRE News: SF Tops Country in Strongest Office Market

Source: Bisnow
By: Allison Nagel
Dated Posted: January 26, 2016

For the first time in history, San Francisco’s office rents have blown past Manhattan, recognizing the city and the Bay Area’s shift toward becoming the nation’s power center as more major companies establish a presence in the area. We chatted with Colliers regional executive managing director Alan Collenette about the brokerage’s new report.

Calling it San Francisco’s “Glittering Age,” Alan says the shift west with the growth of the tech industry marks an era, not a short-lived boom.

San Francisco is the nation’s healthiest office market, Alan says. He argues the world has shifted to a knowledge-based economy that thrives on innovation, and San Francisco is its epicenter as the home to major tech firms, such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter and more, according to the report released by Colliers.

While there has been a lot of consternation about world events and economic woes, Alan tells us the worry may be blown out of proportion. On China in particular, he says exports only account for 13% of the US economy (and China makes up less than 8% of that, or just 1% of our overall economy). China is still growing strongly (more than twice the rate of US growth) with currency that hasn’t been devalued nearly as much as the currencies of other major US trading partners, he tells us. So China may import fewer products and services from the US, but will have a relatively limited direct hit on our near-term economic growth.

In addition, Alan tells us the US added an average of almost 300,000 jobs a month in Q4 and the yield curve (that harbinger of recessions) is still upward sloping (the spread between 10-year and two-year bonds is above its long-term average). Both are signs of a strong economy.

The brokerage firm’s year-end office market research study found:

-Office rents higher in San Francisco ($72.26/SF) than Manhattan ($71.26/SF);
-Vacancies of 7.2% in San Francisco vs. 9.6% in Manhattan;
-Annualized rents are up 11.8% in San Francisco;
-Sublease space at 0.7% of San Francisco’s 90M SF office market (compared with a high of 5.1% after the dot-com bust of 2002 and 1.6% during the recession in 2009);
-Absorption rates totaled nearly 180k SF in Q4 (total absorption for the year was 1,569,532 SF);
-Nearly 6.3M SF leased in San Francisco in 2015;
-36 office sales transactions totaling $3.7B closed during the year (compared with 50 sales for $5B in 2014, but still above the historical averages of $2B to $3B);
-Class-A prices rose to $675/SF, compared with $615 a year ago; and Class-B prices rose to $573/SF from $508 a year ago.

The report notes San Francisco’s 7.2% vacancy rate for Q4 included four office properties that are pre-leased but not occupied (the study only counts occupied buildings): 350 Mission St, 222 Second St, 333 Brannan St and 345 Brannan St. Those buildings are expected to be occupied in the first half of this year, dropping the vacancy back to 7% or lower.

Such growth, a strong economy, high leasing rates, pre-leasing and a robust pipeline of projects under construction mean that 2016 will remain strong for office development, the study notes. Overall, there is nearly 5M SF total under construction with 36% of it pre-leased, Alan says.

Read more at: SF Office Rents Top Manhattan

Jan

San Francisco CRE News: City Proposal Would Double Affordable Housing Requirements

Source: San Francisco Business Times
By: Roland Li
Date Posted: January 12, 2016

Supervisor Jane Kim will introduce a charter amendment today to more than double San Francisco’s affordable housing requirements for market-rate projects to 25 percent.

The change would require voter approval in the June election. The city currently requires market-rate projects to provide 12 percent of their units below market rate. Alternatively, developers can now build 20 percent of their units off site or pay a fee equal to 20 percent of the value of the units. Kim’s proposal also increases the off-site units and the fee to 33 percent each. The charter amendment would also allow the Board of Supervisors to make additional changes to the inclusionary housing policy without going back to voters by removing the existing policy from the charter.

The proposal is likely to spark a fight. Market-rate developers have argued in the past that increasing affordable housing requirements may result in less — not more — affordable housing since the costs could make some housing projects financially infeasible.

Urban think tank SPUR characterized Kim’s new proposal as “undoing the grand bargain” that established the Affordable Housing Trust Fund in 2012. Following the loss of state redevelopment funds for affordable housing, voters approved using general fund revenue to support affordable housing. In addition, the city lowered the affordable housing requirements to 12 percent for market-rate projects. Gabriel Metcalf, president of urban think tank SPUR, is critical of proposing new requirements without doing a study.

“It’s not a good idea to make up an inclusionary requirement out of thin air,” said Metcalf. “We have no way to judge what the right level would be right now. We should do an objective study to set the levels, not have one side re-set them to its liking whenever the political winds are blowing in its favor. Say what you will about the 2012 measure, but it had the involvement and concurrence of lots of different sides in the housing debate.”

Kim’s legislation broadly aligns with Mayor Ed Lee’s call to increase the affordable housing requirements, but he hasn’t proposed a specific requirement and had sought to work with developers to find a consensus.

But Kim called for immediate action. “With the ridiculously high cost of living in the Bay Area, our middle class residents are also vulnerable to losing their homes due to skyrocketing rents they can’t afford or by being pushed out of rent controlled buildings by the landlord. And most of them won’t be able to afford another place in the City,” Kim said in a statement. “This is an urgent step we can and should take now.”

Newly elected Supervisor Aaron Peskin is co-sponsoring the legislation and cites the 40 percent affordable housing numbers at Forest City’s 5M project and the San Francisco Giants’ Mission Rock as precedents for higher affordability requirements. “With Supervisor Kim’s recent successes negotiating unparalleled affordability requirements at Mission Rock and 5M, we know the market can bear it – and so do our constituents looking for relief,” said Peskin in statement.

However, those two projects aren’t indicative that the broader market can bear a higher affordable housing requirements, according to developers. 5M has 825,600 square feet of office space planned and Mission Rock has 1.3 million square feet of office space, which gives them additional revenue sources. The massive size of each project, with 5M’s 688 residential units and Mission Rock’s 1,500 residential units, also give them big enough scale to fund 40 percent affordable housing requirements. A small multifamily project would not necessarily be able to bear the cost of a quarter of its units, developers said, particularly if land prices didn’t fall in response to new requirements.

High affordability also hasn’t swayed opposition to 5M. Three neighborhood groups are now suing to block the project after it received city approval, alleging that the environmental impact study didn’t adequately measure the effects of the project.

Kim’s measure calls for new market-rate projects to provide 15 percent of units below-market-rate housing for renters making up to 55 percent of the area median income, or $39,250 for a single resident under the 2015 fiscal year definition. Rents would be no more than $981.25, or 30 percent, for such income levels. An additional 10 percent of units would be for those making 100 percent of the area median income, or $71,350 for a single resident, which would have rents up to $1,783.75 per month.

For-sale projects would have higher affordability thresholds, with 15 percent of units reserved to those making 80 percent of the area median income, and 10 percent reserved for those making 120 percent of the middle income.

Funding for affordable housing in the Bay Area has decreased due to the state’s 2012 elimination of Redevelopment Agencies and falling federal support. That lack of funding, in addition to an increase in housing demand and spiking prices, has pushed cities around the Bay Area to seek more concessions from market-rate developers. Oakland, San Jose, Berkeley and Emeryville have all moved to implement new fees or increase existing ones to fund affordable housing.

If the fee level is too low, as Supervisor Kim is arguing, the city is not maximizing its funding for affordable housing. But if fees are too high, there’s risk that market-rate development could slow and overall affordability could decrease as demand rises faster than supply, said Metcalf.

Supporters of the ballot measure include the nonprofit Tenants and Owners Development Corp., a prominent South of Market nonprofit, and the Council of Community Housing Organizations, which represents affordable housing developers and tenant advocates. They argue that the current requirement of 12 percent is outdated and that the city’s surge in market-rate construction can support more affordable housing.

“This is how public policy works. It changes and evolves to the circumstances of the time. The circumstances are totally different than 2011,” said Peter Cohen, co-director of CCHO.
Requiring 10 percent of units for residents making around 100 percent of the area median income would also provide much-needed supply for those who struggle to pay market-rate but make too much to qualify for most below-market-rate units, said Cohen. Kim’s proposal “ensures that market-rate projects will continue to provide a portion for middle-class households,” he said.

Link to article: SF to Double Affordable Housing Requirements?

Jan

Tech CRE News: Airbnb in Talks to Lease Former Dolby Office in SOMA

Source: San Francisco Business Times
By: Roland Li
Date Posted: January 14, 2016

Back in October, the audio giant Dolby Laboratories Inc. completed its move to 1275 Market St., heralding another tech arrival in San Francisco’s changing Mid-Market neighborhood.

With the relocation, Dolby (NYSE:DLB) vacated a 150,000-square-foot office at 999 Brannan St. in South of Market, and the building is close to being filled again. Airbnb Inc. is in talks to lease at least 100,000 square feet at 999 Brannan St., said three sources familiar with the property.

The pending deal is another affirmation that even as companies put up large blocks of sublease space on the market, suggesting a slowdown, other growing businesses are quickly snapping them up. Strong market activity, particularly from tech companies, has propelled San Francisco to become the most expensive office market in the country.

999 Brannan St. appears to be a natural expansion for Airbnb. The property is about a block from Airbnb’s current headquarters at 888 Brannan St., separated by Highway 80. The four-story property has a glass facade that wraps around its curving triangular structure, along with rooftop parking and a penthouse conference room, designed by Leddy Maytum Stacy Architects. The asking rent in the building wasn’t clear, but South of Market’s average office rent has surpassed $70 per square foot.

Dolby bought 999 Brannan St. from Shako Real Estate Management Inc. for $18.2 million in 1998, according to property records, but with renovations and a new tenant, the building would be worth exponentially more.,p>
Airbnb’s current location at 888 Brannan St. is evidence of the sharp jump in building values in the area. Last year, pension fund TIAA-CREF bought 888 Brannan St for $312 million from Beacon Capital Partners, a 69 percent profit on the $185 million that Beacon paid for the building in 2014. Airbnb leases 225,000 square feet, or more than half of the 400,000-square-foot building.

Airbnb, valued at $25.5 billion in its latest fundraising round in November, is the world’s third-most valuable private startup on paper, behind Uber Technologies Inc. and China’s Xiaomi Inc. The short-term rentals company also lobbied aggressively and spent $8.5 million to defeat Prop. F, a San Francisco ballot measure that would have added restrictions to its business. The company had around 500 San Francisco employees last year, according to Business Times research.

Jack Jackson of Tailwind Commercial, the leasing broker for 999 Brannan St., didn’t respond to requests for comment. A spokesman for Airbnb declined to comment.

Link to article: Airbnb Eyes Former Dolby Space

Dec

National CRE News: Fed Raises Rate After 7 Years–How Hikes will Affect Commercial Real Estate

Interest Rate Hikes Reflect Expected Strengthening of Economic, Employment Conditions

Source: CoStar
By: Mark Heschmeyer
Date Posted: December 16, 2015

After seven years of worrying over raising interest rates, discussing the best time to raise interest rates, and debating the impact of raising interest rates, money from the federal government is no longer free.

In a unanimous vote, the board of the Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates a quarter of a percentage point.

The hike has been anticipated for nearly six months, thanks to a thorough communication strategy from the Fed that all but eliminated the element of surprise for a jittery stock market. The increase became a foregone conclusion following strong employment growth numbers last month.

Additional interest rate hikes are expected going forward, but will come slowly as the Fed continues to take an accommodative stance supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation.

The impact from the decision could also take some time to surface.

“We do not believe today’s move will have any impact on the commercial real estate markets and that the Fed likely has significantly more room to move before we begin to see real pressure on cap rates,” said Spencer Levy, head of research, the Americas for CBRE. “That said, certain markets may be more susceptible than others to interest rate increases.”

The other wild cards Levy said could have a bigger impact than interest rates include the price of oil, an economic crash or ‘hard landing’ in China, which would lead to pull back in Chinese capital flows, or some other “black swan” event which would impair global growth.

Any such event could easily cause the Fed to reverse course, neutralizing any potential capital outflows, Levy said.

“The flow of international funds-combined with domestic pension funds’ large pools of capital allocated to commercial real estate but unspent-will outweigh any potential increase in the cost of capital,” he added.

Hans Nordby, managing director of CoStar Portfolio Strategy in Boston, agreed that today’s Fed rate hike should have little or no impact in the near term for private sector commercial real estate investors.

“First, while nominal cap rates are very low versus history, the spread between going-in cap rates and comparable investment vehicles, including bonds, stocks and treasuries, is very high,” said Nordby. “Therefore, rates can come up a bit before cap rates need to rise.

“Second, the Fed chose to increase rates because the ‘real’ economy, most notably job growth, is strong. Strong economies increase demand for real estate, and therefore rents. So, these increased rates are in tandem with higher incomes for the real estate, all else being equal,” he added.

“Finally, the fed is unlikely to push rates very hard in near future, given that growth outside the U.S. is very low, and the dollar is very high. Pushing up rates would make American exports even less competitive, just as foreign markets’ demand for U.S. goods is declining.”

Jeffrey Rinkov, CEO of Lee & Associates, said he also expects the rate hike will have minimal impact on commercial real estate.

“Based on a strengthening and stabilizing economy, I believe this was a logical move by the Fed,” Rinkov said. “While the Fed is driven by data, I think this signifies its belief that the economy can operate in an environment with a normalizing monitory policy. Relevant to real estate investment, long term interest rates should remain at historical low levels which will continue to incentivize investment.”

Housing Could See a Boost

One area that could see relief from a higher-rate environment is housing.

Steve A. Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of The Blackstone Group, took an informal show of hands survey last week at Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Brokers Conference, asking the audience how many thought rising interest rates would hurt housing prices and then how many thought it would help.

Hardly anybody raised their hands when asked whether housing prices go down. And about a third of the room put up their hands very slowly when asked whether housing prices go up.

“Well,25 over the last 26 times in history when interest rates went up the value of houses went up,” Schwarzman said. “Because when you have inflation or you have people making more money with the economy growing, that tends to push up the value of houses.”

The more interesting question about interest rates, Schwarzman said is how slowly prices go up.

“But if the markets want to be down on real estate values, that’s okay,” Schwarzman said, “because then we’ll just take out some huge companies, put out huge amount of money at very good prices and what happens at the underlying assets are always worth way more than the stock market is willing to value at the stage and a cycle.”

Martha Peyton, managing director of TIAA-CREF Global Real Estate Strategy & Research, acknowledged that there are fears rooted in the perception that rising interest rates will weaken property values and commercial real estate (CRE) investment performance.

“But, historical data show that higher interest rates have not necessarily derailed CRE total returns, Peyton said. “In fact, property performance has often remained resilient in the face of rising rates. Furthermore, there are a number of factors that may provide protection to overall property performance in a rising interest rate environment.”

The most important protective factor, she said is that rate hikes in the current environment reflect expected strengthening of economic and employment conditions.

Link to Article: Fed Raises Interest Rate

Nov

San Francisco Tech News: Dropbox to Consolidate Workers & Sublease 185 Berry St. HQ

The San Francisco Business times is reporting that Dropbox is slated to release 200,000 square feet of its current 500,000 square feet of office located at 185 Berry Street in China Basin (Dropbox looks to Shed China Basin HQ Space) at $75 a square foot. However, the article suggests that the shedding of space by Dropbox may be more about not wanting to “stay around one location” rather than a sign of a market slowdown.

As other large tech establishments and unicorns (Salesforce, Rocketfuel, Twitter, Lyft, etc.) have either put space up for sublease or plan to shift operations to other locations, market analysts are keeping watch, and some venture capitalists are growing worried (Winder is Coming). But as the Business Times’ article also points out, the availability of sublease space helps other companies who are going the ability to break into the market, or allow “…the likes of Apple to dive into San Francisco in a spaced leased by CNET” In a related article on SF Curbed (Dropbox Sheds), Mary Jo Bowling reports that “real estate pros are still reporting a healthy demand for SF commercial space, albeit with some caution.”

(185 Berry Street)

Oct

San Francisco 3rd Quarter Industrial Market Report

San Francisco’s Vacancy Increases to 3.6%
Net Absorption Negative (517,362) SF in the Quarter

Source: CoStar

The San Francisco Industrial market ended the third quar- ter 2015 with a vacancy rate of 3.6%. The vacancy rate was up over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling negative (517,362) square feet in the third quarter. Vacant sublease space decreased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 337,738 square feet. Rental rates ended the third quarter at $17.82, an increase over the previous quarter. There was 293,100 square feet still under construction at the end of the quarter.

ABSORPTION

Net absorption for the overall San Francisco Industrial market was negative (517,362) square feet in the third quar- ter 2015. That compares to positive 89,907 square feet in the second quarter 2015, positive 111,275 square feet in the first quarter 2015, and positive 255,214 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014.

Tenants moving out of large blocks of space in 2015 include: Nippon Express U.S.A. moving out of (188,000) square feet at 250 Utah Ave, Tyco Electronics moving out of (184,462) square feet at 300 Constitution Dr, and Hajoca Corporation moving out of (40,000) square feet at 1111 Connecticut St.

Tenants moving into large blocks of space in 2015 include: Green Leaf moving into 105,600 square feet at 455 Valley Dr, Invitae Corporation moving into 103,213 square feet at 1400 16th St, and Flying Food Group moving into 69,500 square feet at 240 Littlefield Ave.

The Flex building market recorded net absorption of posi- tive 26,642 square feet in the third quarter 2015, compared to positive 203,145 square feet in the second quarter 2015, positive 104,924 in the first quarter 2015, and positive 114,780 in the fourth quarter 2014.

The Warehouse building market recorded net absorption of negative (544,004) square feet in the third quarter 2015 compared to negative (113,238) square feet in the second quarter 2015, positive 6,351 in the first quarter 2015, and posi- tive 140,434 in the fourth quarter 2014.

VACANCY

The Industrial vacancy rate in the San Francisco market area increased to 3.6% at the end of the third quarter 2015. The vacancy rate was 3.2% at the end of the second quarter 2015, and remained at 3.7% at the end of the first quarter 2015 compared to the previous quarter.

Flex projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.9% at the end of the third quarter 2015, 4.0% at the end of the second quarter 2015, 5.0% at the end of the first quarter 2015, and 5.4% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

Warehouse projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.5% at the end of the third quarter 2015, 3.0% at the end of second quarter 2015, 3.3% at the end of the first quarter 2015, and 3.1% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

SUBLEASE VACANCY

The amount of vacant sublease space in the San Francisco market decreased to 337,738 square feet by the end of the third quarter 2015, from 339,249 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2015. There was 333,754 square feet vacant at the end of the first quarter 2015 and 285,144 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

San Francisco’s Flex projects reported vacant sublease space of 159,239 square feet at the end of third quarter 2015, down from the 164,850 square feet reported at the end of the second quarter 2015. There were 186,108 square feet of sub- lease space vacant at the end of the first quarter 2015, and208,699 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

Warehouse projects reported increased vacant sublease space from the second quarter 2015 to the third quarter 2015. Sublease vacancy went from 174,399 square feet to 178,499 square feet during that time. There was 147,646 square feet at the end of the first quarter 2015, and 76,445 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

RENTAL RATES
The average quoted asking rental rate for available Industrial space was $17.82 per square foot per year at the end of the third quarter 2015 in the San Francisco market area. This represented a 1.7% increase in quoted rental rates from the end of the second quarter 2015, when rents were reported at $17.52 per square foot.

The average quoted rate within the Flex sector was $28.42 per square foot at the end of the third quarter 2015, while Warehouse rates stood at $13.76. At the end of the sec- ond quarter 2015, Flex rates were $28.53 per square foot, and Warehouse rates were $13.03.

DELIVERIES AND CONSTRUCTION

During the third quarter 2015, no new space was completed in the San Francisco market area. This compares to 0 buildings completed in the second quarter 2015, three buildings totaling 118,080 square feet completed in the first quarter 2015, and nothing completed in the fourth quarter 2014.

There were 293,100 square feet of Industrial space under construction at the end of the third quarter 2015.

Some of the notable 2015 deliveries include: 901 Rankin St, an 82,480-square-foot facility that delivered in first quarter 2015 and is now 100% occupied, and 1 Kelly Ct, a 25,600- square-foot building that delivered in first quarter 2015 and is now 100% occupied.

The largest projects underway at the end of third quarter 2015 were The Cove – Building 3, a 153,047-square-foot building with 0% of its space pre-leased, and The Cove – Building 4, a 140,053-square-foot facility that is 0% pre-leased.

INVENTORY

Total Industrial inventory in the San Francisco market area amounted to 94,065,666 square feet in 4,812 buildings as of the end of the third quarter 2015. The Flex sector consisted of 23,919,746 square feet in 791 projects. The Warehouse sector consisted of 70,145,920 square feet in 4,021 buildings. Within the Industrial market there were 520 owner-occupied buildings accounting for 12,959,398 square feet of Industrial space.

SALES ACTIVITY

Tallying industrial building sales of 15,000 square feet or larger, San Francisco industrial sales figures fell during the sec- ond quarter 2015 in terms of dollar volume compared to the first quarter of 2015.

In the second quarter, 11 industrial transactions closed with a total volume of $88,245,000. The 11 buildings totaled 423,420 square feet and the average price per square foot equated to $208.41 per square foot. That compares to 17 transactions totaling $180,790,000 in the first quarter. The total square footage was 870,221 for an average price per square foot of $207.75.

Total year-to-date industrial building sales activity in 2015 is down compared to the previous year. In the first six months of 2015, the market saw 28 industrial sales transac- tions with a total volume of $269,035,000. The price per square foot has averaged $207.97 this year. In the first six months of 2014, the market posted 30 transactions with a total volume of $275,279,100. The price per square foot averaged $211.04.

Cap rates have been lower in 2015, averaging 4.34%, compared to the first six months of last year when they aver- aged 6.58%.

Full Report: 3rdQTR_Industrial

Oct

National CRE News: Office Demand Reaches Pre-Recession Peak

Vacancy Rate Dips for Top Quality Space as Office Absorption Remains Well Ahead of New Construction

Source: CoStar
By: Randyl Drummer
Dated Posted: October 21, 2015

The U.S. office market logged 29 million square feet of net absorption in the third quarter, the second-highest quarterly total since 2006, with demand for office space from expanding companies roughly doubling the amount of new office supply added by developers.

The 68 million square feet of net office absorption in the first three quarters of 2015 compares with an average of just 30 million square feet during the same periods in 2005 through 2007, considered to be the height of the last office boom. Meanwhile, the national office vacancy rate continued its slow and steady decline, dipping to 11% for the third quarter of 2015, down another 20 basis points from midyear and a 60 basis point decline from third-quarter 2014.

A large majority of U.S. office submarkets, 65%, saw declining office vacancy in the third quarter, while 52% of U.S. submarkets now have lower office vacancy than during the 2006-07 peak, with most metros posting solid rent growth.

Those were among the key findings in CoStar’s State of the U.S. Office Market Third Quarter 2015 Review and Forecast presentation this week, which aslo noted one major difference from previous office market cycles: the average vacancy rate for high-quality 4- and 5-Star office space built since 2008 has remained flat, even though the 42 million square feet of new supply delivered in the first three quarters is nearly 40% above the same period in 2005-2007, said Walter Page, CoStar Group, Inc. director of U.S. research, office.

“We’re at a rare point. Vacancy in new space has flat-lined since about 2013. What’s interesting about that is the supply pipeline has not caused the rate to spike up nationally, unlike other market cycles,” said Page, who was joined by Aaron Jodka, senior manager, market analytics and Managing Director Hans Nordby for the the office market analysis.

“Office tenants clearly want this new space and are willing to pay for it because obviously, they’re leasing it up,” Page added.

Jodka added that demand for 4-and 5-Star space grew at 2.5% between third-quarter 2014 and the most recent three-month period, compared with 1.4% in the overall office market and nearly three times the demand growth rate achieved for 1-, 2- and 3-Star properties.

Nordby noted that despite a rise in rental rates, total occupancy costs as a percentage of company profits remain at an all-time low as companies continue to put more workers into fewer square feet, which is allowing firms to continue leasing high-quality space.

Among individual markets, Dallas stood out by posting the strongest year-over-year net absorption, while Houston — plagued by space-givebacks among energy focused companies — saw the weakest demand among large U.S. metros. Perhaps due to a more diversified business base, Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver are thriving despite their exposure to the economic repercussions from the falling price of oil.

Nordby pointed out that Dallas and Atlanta are classic big-tenant markets that do well late in the economic cycle, with corporate relocations of companies that require large blocks of space driving their markets.

Link to article: US Office Demand

Oct

15

National CRE News: Net Leased Sector ‘Red Hot’; Developers Race to Meet Tenant Demand

Institutional Buyers Scooping Up Newly Built Triple-Net Office, Retail Projects Faster Than Developers Can Bring Them On Line

Source: CoStar
By: Randyl Drummer
Date Posted: October 14, 2015

Investor demand for net-lease properties, those single-tenant assets often perceived as boring but safe alternatives to riskier real estate investments, is spiking to record levels as more confident investors continue to snap up convenience and drug stores, restaurants and other single-tenant retail establishments.

“The net lease market has been on fire,” says JLL Managing Director Guy Ponticiello, who leads the company’s corporate finance and net lease national practice group. “Net lease sales activity is expected to be north of $55 billion this year compared with $40 billion in 2007. There’s a tremendous amount of capital earmarked for the sector.”

Reports by The Boulder Group and Marcus & Millichap pointed to strong sales volume in both the office and retail net lease office and retail categories in the third quarter.

In the most recent example of the frothy market, particularly for dining portfolios, Rochester, NY-based Broadstone Net Lease (BNL), a private REIT managed by Broadstone Real Estate, LLC, announced recent closings of $123.4 million in triple-net properties, bringing its year-to-date total to about $350 million.

In its largest acquisition to date, Broadstone this month acquired a portfolio of 36 Jack’s Family Restaurants in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.for $83 million. Other third-quarter transactions included the purchase of Kinston, NC property tenanted by Pactiv, LLC, the world’s largest manufacturer and distributor of food service packaging; the purchase of four Buffalo Wild Wings properties in Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas; and the purchase of two properties in Texas tenanted by Federal Heath Sign Co., a producer of digital, illuminated and non-illuminated signs.

Both NNN Office, Retail See Solid Demand

Demand is spread across all types of single-tenant assets. Asking capitalization rates fell to historic lows for both net-leased office (7.25%) and retail (6.25%) in the third quarter, according to a new report by The Boulder Group. Tightening supply caused cap rates for newly delivered property occupied by 7-Eleven, Bank of America and Family Dollar compressed by between 25 and 65 basis points, compared to 15 basis points on sales of all net-lease assets, noted Boulder Group President Randy Blankstein.

“Properties in the greatest demand continue to be new construction with long term leases with investment grade tenants,” Blankstein said. “Despite a slight rise, there is a lack of new construction properties with long-term leases as the development pipeline has slowed compared to the first half of 2015.”

Despite investor demand, some retailers have remained cautious in their expansion plans, especially in jurisdictions taking steps to raise the minimum wage, which can dramatically drive up tenant labor costs, according to the Third-Quarter Net Lease Outlook from Marcus & Millichap.

While the potential effect of the wage hikes on the bottom lines of retailers’ bottom line is still unknown, as a whole, retailer demand is expected to remain well ahead of supply increases this year, Marcus & Millichap said. Net absorption will nearly double planned completions, causing asking rents to climb in the low single digits.

While there’s a huge spread between cap rates of high- and lower-quality properties, institutional investors, pension funds and both publicly traded and Nontraded REITs have moved into the space with a vengeance, Ponticiello said.

“Where you do have assets with longevity of lease terms, cash flow security and rent escalation to comfortably hedge against future interest rate movements or inflation, those deals are experiencing unbelievably low cap rates,” he said. “We still see 15-year deals with decent bone structures, with newer buildings in prime markets trading in the low 5% range.”

Link to Article: Net Leased Investments Red Hot

Oct

15

National CRE News: Commercial Property Price Growth Continues

Robust CRE Space Absorption Bolstered Recent Price Gains

Source: CoStar
By: Mark Heschmeyer
Date Posted: October 14, 2015

While construction has been rising in many markets, aggregate demand across the major property types continues to outstrip supply, resulting in lower vacancy rates and rent growth. This, in turn, continues to drive strong investor interest in commercial real estate, according to the latest CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI).

In August 2015, the two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI-the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index-increased by 1.3% and 1%, respectively, and 12.6% and 11.4%, respectively, in the 12 months ended August 2015.

Click here for the full CCRSI October release and supporting materials: Commercial Repeat Sale Indices

Recent stronger growth in the General Commercial segment, which is influenced by smaller, lower-value properties, confirms a broad-based pricing recovery. Within the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, the General Commercial segment posted a monthly increase of 1% in August 2015 and 11.9% for the 12 months ended August 2015, propelling the index to within 7% of its pre-recession high.

Robust CRE Space Absorption Bodes Well for Continued Favorable Property Sales Conditions

For the four quarters ended as of the third quarter of 2015, net absorption across the three major property types-office, retail, and industrial-totaled 611.4 million square feet. That is 20% more than in the four quarters ended as of the third quarter of 2014. It is also the second-highest annualized absorption total on record since 2008.

The office and industrial sectors turned in particularly strong performances during this 12-month period, averaging net absorption of 0.3% and 0.4% of inventory, respectively. The the retail sector averaged a more modest 0.2% in the trailing four quarters ended as of the third quarter of 2015.

The CCRSI’s U.S. composite pair volume of $79.5 billion year-to-date through August 2015 was a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2014. This suggests that 2015 could be another record year for commercial real estate acquisitions.

Both the high and low end of the market are attracting increased capital flows, with volume up by nearly 32% in both the Investment-Grade and General Commercial segments.

Link to Article: CRE Property Price Growth Heats Up

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