Category: San Francisco CRE (33)

The reported industrial vacancy rates in San Francisco and surrounding Peninsula areas decreased to 3.5% at the end of Q3 2019 (down from 3.8% in Q2 2019). The Bayshore Corridor of San Francisco witnessed yet another decrease in vacancy to a sub 1% rate of .5% (down from .9% in Q2 2019). The San Francisco/Peninsula market reported a delivery of 21,807+/- square feet of new construction, and 2,568,754 square feet of product under construction, primarily in South San Francisco, Brisbane & Daly City. The industrial core of San Francisco (Bayshore / Potrero Hill / Dogpatch) reported 56,121 square feet of product under construction, with zero deliveries, or construction starts.

Q3 2019 ended with averaged over-all asking rents (industrial and flex) down from $2.30 per square foot to $2.26 per square foot, representing an 1.9% decrease over the previous quarter. Comparatively, current average US industrial asking rents are reported as $.72 per square foot (up from $.71 at the end of Q2 2019). Asking rents specific to warehouse product remained at $1.88 psf at the end of Q3 (no change from Q2). Quoted daily warehouse asking rents for the Bayshore Corridor at the end of Q3 decreased to $1.97 psf from $2.04 psf in Q2. Year-over-year market rents have decreased by 3.9% for the San Francisco/Peninsula industrial/flex market.

Q3 2019 Industrial sale transactions are up from Q2 2019 with $408M in sales volume averaging $334.00 per square foot compared to $308M in sales averaging $328.61 per square foot in Q2 2019. CAP rates averaged 4.9% in Q3 & Q2 2019, representing a minimal increase over Q1 2019 CAP rates of 4.85%. National CAP rates have remained at 6.7% for Q1-Q3 2009.

Calco Commercial has leased and sold 1,097,884+/- square feet of industrial, flex, office and land in 2019 comprising 59 transactions, with 179,124+/- square feet and 16 transactions in Q3 alone. Following are the notable Q3 2019 transactions: 253 Utah Avenue, South San Francisco (14,250 +/- sf industrial lease), 81 Dorman Avenue, San Francisco (12,500+/- sf industrial lease), and 3012 Spring Street, Redwood City (5,000/- sf commercial/sale), and 4870 Centennial Boulevard, Colorado Springs (50,000+/- commercial/sale). Calco Commercial is a leading industrial & commercial real estate firm with decades of experience in Landlord /Owner representation, and repositioning assets into net leased properties with in-place income streams. Let us help make the most of your real estate properties and investments.

If you would like to discuss your real estate options, or would simply like more information related to current market conditions, please call our office a 415.970.0000, or directly contact one of our professionals.

Click here for the full report: Q3 2019 Industrial Market Report

Source: San Francisco Chronicle
By: Roland Li
Date: July 26, 2018

Facebook’s recent share plunge was one for the stock-books as the $119 billion decrease officially became the largest drop on Wall Street, even surpassing Intel’s $90 billion one-day drop in 2000. Facebook is one of the Bay Area’s largest employers and drives a local economies–what does this severe decrease in stock value mean for the Bay? According to the The Chronicle, the plunge will not “hurt the Bay Area economy.” Coupled with their “$42.3 billion cash reserve,” and with a planned 20,000+/- jobs being added to the security team, Facebook will continue to “boost the local economy.”

Other economists worry that the drop in price could indicate a pending correction in the market. However, with Amazon’s massive increase in Q2 earnings, it may be too early to predict if Facebook is suffering from an overall market dip, or its own public relation woes.

According to Gary Schlossberg, a senior economist at Wells Fargo and quoted in the Chronicle article, the market has experienced a “mild deterioration in some of the fundamentals driving the market. The question is: how much will U.S. growth slow and with it earnings growth? A lot of strength in earnings has to do with corporate tax cuts. We need to see how aggressively the Fed will move interest rates. There could be a gradual turn toward ad less friendly environment for the stock market.”

Time will tell.

Source: CoStar News
By: Mark Heschemeyer
Date: July 19, 2018
Link: Distressed

The deal announced this week that private equity firm Stone Point Capital plans to buy Sabal Capital Partners, a small-balance, multifamily lender and loan servicer, is only the latest maneuvering in the shifting landscape for special servicing of commercial real estate loans. More deals are likely as a projected rise in interest rates may boost distress in the market.

Special servicers control the fate of billions in distressed loans and thus the fate of billions in commercial properties. And right now, that is a lucrative market flooded with capital but with fewer investment opportunities capable of providing the higher returns expected from private equity investors.

The jockeying for position is not only indicative of billions of private equity money flowing into distressed assets but also shows where the market is heading.

Driven in part by retail weakness, the volume of loans in commercial mortgage bonds on servicers’ “watch lists” has been on a gradual upswing since last November, according to Morningstar Credit Ratings data. Loans are put on a watch list because of issues such as declining occupancy or net incomes at the properties backing the loans. The rise in volume is considered a reliable indicator of future distress.

The maneuvering is not done, with a prize still to be had. One of the three largest commercial loan special servicers in the market, Rialto Capital Advisors, is still in play. Its owner, homebuilder Lennar Corp., has hired financial advisers to determine Rialto’s strategic alternatives as Lennar shifts to concentrating purely on residential building.

Three of Rialto’s larger competitors are owned by bank holding companies, PNC Financial Services Group owns Midland Loan Services, the largest special servicer in the market; and the second- and fifth-largest are Wells Fargo and KeyBank.

Notably, Wells Fargo is one of the two financial advisers Lennar hired to consider what to do with Rialto. The other adviser is Deutsche Bank.

The fourth-largest special servicer, CWCapital Asset Management, was acquired six months ago by Japanese multinational holding conglomerate SoftBank Group.

Distressed property purchasing is one of the country’s hottest investment categories and the primary target of new investment dollars. At a time when core property prices have hit new peaks, yield-hungry investors are aggressively sourcing new investment opportunities that offer more compelling returns.

Private equity funds raised $14.7 billion alone for value-add and opportunistic commercial real estate last quarter, according to private equity data provider Preqin.

About 75 percent of the new investment money being raised in the market is targeting value-add and opportunistic real estate, the categories that distressed assets fall into, said Chris Lee, vice chairman of CBRE Capital Markets Group based in Miami.

Lee directed one of the largest distressed deals of this year. CBRE, in conjunction with Ten-X, arranged the sale of a foreclosed upon leasehold interest in 110 E. Broward in Fort Lauderdale in January for $41.06 million. Stockbridge Capital Group acquired the 24-story office tower and an adjacent two-story office and retail pavilion. LNR Partners was the seller as special servicer for owner CMBS trust.

“There is no lack of demand for distressed properties,” Lee said of private equity firms. “There is a lot of hidden, and not so hidden, value in these properties.”

At the time of the sale, 110 E. Broward was only 42 percent leased at the time, representing a value-add opportunity by the lease-up of 198,803 square feet of vacant space in a market where the competitive set vacancy is just 8 percent.

In this environment, banks and servicers have had little trouble liquidating the distressed assets. So, the problem for Lee and other brokers is finding inventory right now to sell. The amount of distressed assets in the market at the moment is at post-2008 recession lows as the recovery is now approaching 10 years running.

The amount of foreclosed commercial properties on bank books had shrunk to just $4.7 billion in the first quarter from $31.2 billion seven years ago, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data.

The amount of specially serviced loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities has fallen by $70 billion in that time, down to about $23 billion.

The diverging trends of money coming in and assets available for liquidation has created a lot of jockeying among special servicers for the dwindling supply of deals. Wells Fargo Bank, PNC’s Midland Loan Services, Rialto Capital and KeyBank have grown their market share in the past two years at the expense of CWCapital Asset Management and other smaller servicers.

Of those loan balances assigned, the amount of distressed loans being actively serviced is small, about 2.4 percent. At year-end 2017, Rialto’s active special-servicing portfolio contained 364 loans and 481 real estate owned properties with a combined unpaid loan balance of $1.98 billion, according to Morningstar Credit Ratings.

In advance of any decision from Lennar about Rialto’s fate, the special servicer has also been particularly active in the past two months growing its special servicing assignments.

Another arm of Rialto has been one of the most active buyers of B-piece commercial mortgage bond offerings. That affiliate has underwritten and purchased over $6.1 billion in face value of such bonds in 88 different securitizations.

B-piece buyers generally purchase the lowest-rated and the very bottom of the bond classes — the unrated class. Any losses to the bond trust come out of the lowest-rated bonds first.

Because of that, B-piece buyers have the right to play an active role in making decisions on important issues that can affect the value of the loan or the collateral. That includes such issues as identifying what collateral goes into the offering and having first-purchase options on defaulted loans or, in this case, appointing new special servicers.

In the past two months, the Rialto affiliate has removed the existing special servicer on 11 different commercial mortgage bond offerings in which it has invested and replaced them with Rialto Capital, according to bond rating agency announcements. Rialto has taken assignments away from Midland Loan Services and CWCapital.

Such removal and replacing of special servicers is not unusual. CWCapital has also won such assignments in the past two months. However, the number of such switches involving Rialto has been much higher than for the others.

Executives from neither Rialto nor Lennar responded to requests for comments for this story.

With office vacancy rates looming shy of 5% in the South Financial District Submarket, Google has just leased approximately 57,000+/- square feet at 2 Harrison Street in the Hills Plaza. According to The San Francisco Chronicle, Google now occupies “400,000 square feet” at the Hills Plaza complex, with a total of “1 Million square feet of leased and owned” properties in San Francisco.

San Francisco office rents are currently averaging $61.51 per square foot according to Costar, and with tech giants like Google snapping up large swaths of office space, vacancy will continue to decrease, possibly forcing rents up for the rest of the office market.

Supervisors Aaron Peskin and Mayor Mark Farrell behind an ordinance that would allocate square footage from office space conversions back into the pool of space that can be developed for office. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the ordinance would add approximately “1.3 million square feet” of potential office space under the cap.

In addition to adding some relief to the tight office market, the ordinance also hopes to green-light two “high-profile projects to move forward: Kilroy Realty’s Flower Mart, which will consist of 2 million square feet of offices on top of the flower vendors, and Tishman Speyer’s 598 Brannan St., which would include a 38,000-square-foot public park, 91 affordable housing units and 72,000 square feet of industrial space.”

Source: the Registry
By: Vladimir Bosanac
Date Posted: March 28, 2018
Link to Article: GOOGLE

San Francisco continues to be a magnet for tech companies small and large. While making strides in acquiring buildings and land across Silicon Valley, Google is also making sure its presence in the city continues to build upon an established base that will keep the talent flowing and projects moving along. According to a recent report by CoStar, Google has expanded its footprint in San Francisco at its 2 Harrison Street location, signing on to take additional 57,000 square feet in the building.

The space that Google is taking over is currently occupied by Gensler, the international and world-renown architecture firm, which will be vacating the building shortly.

The building has been home to Google for some time, and with this expansion, the technology giant will occupy around 125,000 square feet in the property. The property, also known as Hills Plaza, was once home to Hills Bros. Coffee, where the company’s coffee plant was once located. It was built in 1924 and later renovated in 1986. Today it has 211,000 square feet, and Google’s latest lease would put it over half of building.

Other tenants in the building are Mozilla (the makers of the Firefox web browser), Marin Day School, the Wharton School (University of Pennsylvania) and the offices of the owner, Prime Property Fund, which is a Morgan Stanley core property fund.

The building is located along the Embarcadero, and it sits almost at the foot of the Bay Bridge with views of the bay, Treasure Island and Oakland. The building is also home to Palomino restaurant, which is located on the ground floor.

Google has been in the news almost weekly in the last few months. Along with negotiating a massive development in San Jose next to the city’s Diridon Station, the company has continued its buying spree across the region and especially so in Silicon Valley. In February, the company received an approval from the city of San Jose to purchase land that was previously owned by the city for $67 million. Just a month earlier, it spent $117.25 million on three industrial buildings also in San Jose. In Sunnyvale, along with spending around $250 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 to buy land and properties, it also proposed a new, one-million-square-foot campus that would house 4,500 employees.

The boom of e-commerce, fueled by Amazon, as created a demand for industrial warehouse space across the nation. But how long can the industrial boom be sustained–can other companies follow the “same day delivery” demands sparked by Amazon, and how will increasing construction costs affect the market? At Bisnow’s National Industrial event in New York, such questions were discussed.

Click here to read the responses including how a lack of truck drivers, old ports, and lack of space may impact the industrial marketplace: Industrial Boom

With the ever present shift of brick & mortar retail to e-commerce, the recently completed 350K square foot “retail center” located at 945 Market Street may also undergoing a shift of its own. According to SocketSite, the developer Cypress Equities, “is now seeking approval to convert 47,522 square feet of the five-story building’s retail space into open floor office space.”

The San Francisco Planning Commission is scheduled to hear the proposed conversion pitch by mid-March 2018. What will become of the remaining vacant 217,000 square feet remains to be seen.

According to Bisnow, the 2018 commercial real estate market for San Francisco is expected to be positive. From industrial to residential, all SF product types are still in an up-swing. Per the article, even with a possible recession looming in the next few years, industry experts believe it could be a less than 2% of GDP, while the 2008 recession was 4.1%, for comparison.

Developers too, are positive about where San Francisco CRE is headed in 2018 with the demand for housing, office, bio-tech and industrial still holding strong. With high profile and large re-development projects under way such as the 850K square feet of office at the previous San Francisco Tennis Club and the 5M square feet of office at the Shipyard/Candlestick site, San Francisco will have the product to entice future businesses to re-locate and give local companies the opportunity to expand.