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Category: san francisco commercial real estate (137)

May

National CRE News: Commercial Real Estate Prices Continue Upward Surge in Q1 2015

Prices Indices Rise at Double-Digit Rates for all U.S. Regions, Major Property Types
Source: CoStar
by: Randyl Drummer
Date Posted: May 13, 2015

Amid some of the strongest investment sales on record, commercial real estate prices rose across both the high and the low ends of the market during the first three months of 2015 as strong capital flows and healthy fundamentals converged to support broad pricing gains.

The latest release of the CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI), an analysis of commercial property sales through March 2015 that provides one of the broadest measures of repeat sales activity, reflected increases across virtually every segment of the real estate market during the first quarter of 2015.

The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, influenced by sales of high-quality assets in core markets, increased by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2015 and is now 11% above its previous peak in 2007. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which weighs each transaction equally and reflects the impact from the more numerous smaller transactions, rose 4.8% in the first quarter, although its price recovery started later in the cycle and remains 10% below its previous peak.

The General Commercial segment of the CCRSI Composite Index, made up of smaller deals typical of second- and third-tier markets, gained by 5% in the first quarter of 2015 and 15.9% for the 12 months ending in March 2015, moving to within 11.3% of its previous peak as deals outside of the primary markets continued to attract more investor attention.

The investment grade segment of the Composite Index, which encompasses larger-sized, high-quality properties most often purchased by institutional investors, posted solid but more modest growth of 4.6% in the first quarter and 10.5% in the 12-month period, moving to within 6% of its prior peak.

As the CRE recovery spread across more markets and property segments, all regional sectors and building types posted double-digit annual gains in the 12 months through March 2015. The Multifamily Index has already fully recovered, eclipsing its previous peak, while the retail and industrial indices climbed to within 10% of their previous peaks. The Office Index remained 15% below its previous 2007 high mark.

Among CCRSI’s regional indices, strong investor demand in core coastal metros propelled the Northeast Composite Index to 6.1% above its prior peak during March, while the West Composite Index moved to within 8.4% of its prior high.

Property sales transaction activity, which reached a cyclical high last year, remained strong in the first quarter of 2015, typically the weakest quarter of the year for sales activity. Total sales pair investment volume of $27.8 billion in the first quarter was still more than 50% higher than in the same period last year, suggesting that capital flows will continue to be strong through 2015.

The low cost of debt has helped support the robust deal volume, with low interest rates helping keep wide spreads over the risk-free bond rate, despite historically low capitalization rates.

All six property type indices logged double-digit gains in the 12 months. The CCRSI prime industrial and apartment indices, measuring sales of the properties in the top metros in each sector, saw limited growth due to the run-up in pricing in many core markets. However, the prime office and retail indices grew faster than the overall market average during the same period.

Apartment investment led all building types in annual growth, with the Multifamily Index increasing by 14.8% for the 12 months ending in March. While strong investor appetite for 5- and 4-Star assets in primary markets has propelled the Prime Multifamily Metros Index to lead all repeat sale indices in the recovery and is now 27.6% above its previous 2007 peak, new supply entering the market is beginning to exert downward pressure on occupancies and rent growth. Consequently, the Prime Multifamily Metros index slowed to 10.3% for the 12 months ending in March 2015, compared with 24% for the same period a year earlier.

With new office construction in check and office job growth continuing to outstrip overall employment growth, prices for office properties increased 13.9% during the 12-month period ending March 30. The Prime Office Metros Index advanced by an even stronger 19% annually, with sales of larger core office properties that more resemble bonds in terms of value retention and appreciation enjoying strong pricing growth. Investors view such assets as reliable alternative investments with good relative value.

The U.S. Retail Index rose 43.5% from its recessionary low and 13.5% for the 12 months ending in the first quarter. Retail pricing is now just 6.8% below its previous peak — second only to multifamily among the four major property types. Pricing gains were strongest in top-tier trade areas within core coastal markets over the period, while late-recovery markets, especially fast-growing Sun Belt metros, offered the most price appreciation potential.

Industrial vacancy rates fell to lows not seen since before the last recession, while rent growth, usually unremarkable for industrial property, remained strong at over 5% annually for the 12 months. As a result, the Industrial Index advanced by a solid 12.4%. After a 5.1% increase over the last 12 months, the Prime Industrial Metros Index is still below last cycle’s peak, suggesting more runway for price appreciation as rents continue to escalate. These prime metros are expected to become increasingly competitive as new supply comes on line.

After relatively modest growth of just 4% in the prior period, the Hospitality Index surged by 20.6% in the 12-month period. U.S. hotel occupancies have reached their highest level since the mid-1990s, fueling growth in average room rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR).

Although the CCRSI Land Index gained 23.1% in the 12 months as developers bid up sites across all property sectors, the index has not yet reached its 2012 trough and is still in the earlier stages of its recovery. The Land Index remains 23.1% below its previous peak during the last cycle.

Link to article: CRE Prices Surge

Apr

National Commercial Real Estate News: Prices Continue to Advance Across More Markets & Building Types

Absorption of Lower-End Commercial Properties Rises 61% Over 12 Months Ended First-Quarter 2015

Source: CoStar
Reporter: Randyl Drummer
Date Posted: April 15, 2015

Continuing the broad recovery across all property types and throughout most U.S. markets, commercial real estate prices again moved upward in February, reflecting solid occupier demand as well as widening investor interest in smaller properties outside the largest U.S. metros.

The latest CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI) shows that the two broadest measures of U.S. commercial property pricing, the value-weighted and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Indices, gained 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively, in February. That’s a continuation of January’s strong performance, and both of these key indices have increased by more than 13% over the past 12 months as final sale pricing increases expand into smaller markets and secondary property types.

The equal-weighted composite index, reflecting rising momentum in transactions for smaller properties at the lower end of the market, in February has now recovered within 12% of its pre-recession high — its highest average since the fourth quarter of 2008 — with investors parking their capital in alternative locations as prices escalate in the most desirable core markets. The index has now recovered by 37.4% above its 2011 trough.

The momentum shift to lesser-quality and smaller properties has also turned up in recent growth in the General Commercial Index property segment, which has increased by 13.4% over the 12 months. Its higher-end counterpart, the Investment Grade Index, rose by 9.3%.

The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index — more heavily influenced by the high-value trades in the best primary markets that led the recovery — surpassed its previous 2008 peak by more than 8.8% in February.

Continuing what has become an seasonal slowing trend in recent years, net absorption of office, retail and industrial space slowed in first-quarter 2015 from its pace during the last three quarters of 2014. However, net absorption still totaled 527.2 million square feet for the 12 months ended March 30 — a very strong 39.6% above the previous 12-month period that ended in March of last year.

In more evidence of broad recovery, net absorption of general commercial properties rose a whopping 61% over the 12-month period, compared with a 31.4% gain in the investment grade segment. That’s a switch from earlier in the recovery, when high-end assets led absorption trends as tenants chased lower rents to move into prime space.

Leasing momentum is shifting toward low-end properties as vacancies have fallen and rents have escalated at the top end of the market, however.

For example, vacant office space in the 4 and 5 Star property segment dipped below its 15-year average of 12% in 2014, helping accelerate absorption and rent growth for 3-Star properties for the 12 months through first-quarter 2015.

Investment sales activity in the first three months of 2015 followed the typical pattern, falls from the previous year-end level. Despite the slowdown from the fourth quarter of 2014, however, trading activity through the end of February suggests another active year for CRE acquisitions in 2015.

The U.S. composite sales pair count of 2,357 and sales volume of $18.9 billion in the first two months of 2015 exceeded totals from the same period in 2014, while the share of properties selling at distressed prices fell from 32% in 2011 to less than 10% for the 12 months ended February 2015.

Link to article: CRE Rising Prices

Apr

San Francisco Commercial Real Estate Market News: Q1 2015 Industrial Report

San Francisco’s Vacancy Decreases to 3.6%
Net Absorption Positive 218,378 SF in the Quarter
Source: CoStar

The San Francisco Industrial market ended the first quar- ter 2015 with a vacancy rate of 3.6%. The vacancy rate was down over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling positive 218,378 square feet in the first quarter. Vacant sublease space increased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 413,869 square feet. Rental rates ended the first quarter at $16.40, an increase over the previous quarter. A total of two buildings delivered to the market in the quarter totaling 108,080 square feet, with 252,593 square feet still under construction at the end of the quarter.

Absorption

Net absorption for the overall San Francisco Industrial market was positive 218,378 square feet in the first quarter 2015. That compares to positive 265,569 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014, negative (20,730) square feet in the third quarter 2014, and positive 958,846 square feet in the second quarter 2014.

Tenants moving out of large blocks of space in 2015 included U-Save Equipment & Tool Rental moving out of (21,000) square feet at 1258 Bayshore Blvd.

Tenants moving into large blocks of space in 2015 include: Green Leaf moving into 105,600 square feet at 455 Valley Dr, Myokardia moving into 45,404 square feet at 333 Allerton Ave, and CloudFlare moving into 43,519 square feet at 101 Townsend St.

The Flex building market recorded net absorption of posi- tive 3,656 square feet in the first quarter 2015, compared to positive 129,751 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014, positive140,779 in the third quarter 2014, and positive 276,608 in the second quarter 2014.

The Warehouse building market recorded net absorp- tion of positive 214,722 square feet in the first quarter 2015 compared to positive 135,818 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014, negative (161,509) in the third quarter 2014, and positive 682,238 in the second quarter 2014.

Vacancy

The Industrial vacancy rate in the San Francisco market area decreased to 3.6% at the end of the first quarter 2015. The vacancy rate was 3.8% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014, 4.0% at the end of the third quarter 2014, and 4.1% at the end of the second quarter 2014.

Flex projects remained at a vacancy rate of 5.3% at the end of the first quarter 2015 compared to the previous quarter, 5.8% at the end of the third quarter 2014, and 6.4% at the end of the second quarter 2014.

Warehouse projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.1% at the end of the first quarter 2015, 3.3% at the end of fourth quarter 2014, 3.4% at the end of the third quarter 2014, and 3.3% at the end of the second quarter 2014.

Sublease Vacancy

The amount of vacant sublease space in the San Francisco market increased to 413,869 square feet by the end of the first quarter 2015, from 285,144 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014. There was 290,380 square feet vacant at the end of the third quarter 2014 and 314,753 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2014.

San Francisco’s Flex projects reported vacant sublease space of 186,108 square feet at the end of first quarter 2015, down from the 208,699 square feet reported at the end of the fourth quarter 2014. There were 91,366 square feet of sublease space vacant at the end of the third quarter 2014, and 129,748 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2014.

Warehouse projects reported increased vacant sublease space from the fourth quarter 2014 to the first quarter 2015. Sublease vacancy went from 76,445 square feet to 227,761 square feet during that time. There was 199,014 square feet at the end of the third quarter 2014, and 185,005 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2014.

Rental Rates

The average quoted asking rental rate for available Industrial space was $16.40 per square foot per year at the end of the first quarter 2015 in the San Francisco market area. This represented a 4.1% increase in quoted rental rates from the end of the fourth quarter 2014, when rents were reported at $15.75 per square foot.

The average quoted rate within the Flex sector was $26.61 per square foot at the end of the first quarter 2015, while Warehouse rates stood at $12.23. At the end of the fourth quarter 2014, Flex rates were $25.23 per square foot, and Warehouse rates were $11.94.

Deliveries and Construction

During the first quarter 2015, two buildings totaling 108,080 square feet were completed in the San Francisco market area. This compares to 0 buildings completed in the previous three quarters.

There were 252,593 square feet of Industrial space under construction at the end of the first quarter 2015.

Some of the notable 2015 deliveries include: 901 Rankin St, an 82,480-square-foot facility that delivered in first quar- ter 2015 and is now 100% occupied by Goodeggs and Mollie Stone’s Markets, and 1 Kelly Ct, a 25,600-square-foot building that delivered in first quarter 2015 and is now 100% occupied by CS Bio Company, Inc.

The largest projects underway at the end of first quarter 2015 were The Cove – Building 3, a 132,034-square-foot building with 0% of its space pre-leased, and The Cove – Building 4, a 120,559-square-foot facility that is 0% pre-leased.

Inventory
Total Industrial inventory in the San Francisco market area amounted to 94,507,020 square feet in 4,841 buildings as of the end of the first quarter 2015. The Flex sector consisted of 23,955,743 square feet in 789 projects. The Warehouse sector consisted of 70,551,277 square feet in 4,052 buildings. Within the Industrial market there were 516 owner-occupied buildings accounting for 12,428,802 square feet of Industrial space.

Sales Activity

Tallying industrial building sales of 15,000 square feet or larger, San Francisco industrial sales figures fell during the fourth quarter 2014 in terms of dollar volume compared to the third quarter of 2014.

In the fourth quarter, nine industrial transactions closed with a total volume of $58,055,000. The nine buildings totaled 430,025 square feet and the average price per square foot equated to $135.00 per square foot. That compares to eight transactions totaling $80,684,000 in the third quarter. The total square footage was 349,762 for an average price per square foot of $230.68.

Total year-to-date industrial building sales activity in 2014 is up compared to the previous year. In the twelve months of 2014, the market saw 46 industrial sales transactions with a total volume of $410,518,100. The price per square foot has averaged $199.10 this year. In the twelve months of 2013, the market posted 31 transactions with a total volume of $191,567,100. The price per square foot averaged $176.40.

Cap rates have been higher in 2014, averaging 6.35%, compared to the twelve months of last year when they averaged 6.19%.

Link to Full Report: Costar Q1 Industrial Report 2015

Apr

San Francisco Commercial Real Estate News: Does SF tech firms shedding office space indicate a bubble?

Source: San Francisco Business Journal
Reporter: Cory Weinberg
Date Posted: April 23, 2015

About 50,000 square feet of space in at 1455 Market St. just hit the market – a big block leased by the public advertising tech company Rocket Fuel. The brokerage Savills Studley said in a report that Rocket Fuel (NASDAQ:FUEL) is the kind of company subleasing space after “not expanding as quickly as anticipated or shedding a bit of payroll.” After the company’s revenue growth faltered, it said it wouldn’t hire as aggressively.

Rocket Fuel isn’t alone in shopping around its offices. The sublease market in San Francisco has suddenly ticked up, and sublease space now makes up the largest percentage of vacant space since the depths of the recession, according to new data by the brokerage Cushman & Wakefield. San Francisco and Silicon Valley lead the nation in sublease space as a percentage of vacancies – about 13 percent for each.

It’s a leading indicator important enough to raise eyebrows if it means that companies got too ambitious with their real estate needs and are shedding space – puncturing a hole in a potential office market bubble.

But market watchers aren’t jumping to that conclusion yet.

Developers and brokers aren’t panicking because the raw amount of sublease space on the market in San Francisco – nearly 650,000 square feet – doesn’t come close to the 2 million square feet of subleased space on the market during the recession or the 6 million square feet during the dot-com bust. The amount of total vacant space is also at a 15-year low, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

Sublease space increased a bit last quarter in part because “tenants (particularly tech-related tenants) are leasing or pre-leasing ahead of hiring to lock in today’s rents before further increases,” Cushman & Wakefield’s research director Robert Sammons wrote.

Sammons said San Francisco and Silicon Valley’s high proportion of subleased space has some likely company: New York City’s Midtown South submarket, which is also heavy on technology companies, has the same sublease rate.

“Not every tech firm is going to be the next Google, so there will be an ebb and flow where they expanded more than they should have,” he added in a phone call. “The flip side of that is that there are a lot of tenants looking for built, plug-and-play space because they don’t know what the next year is going to bring them.”

Plus, he added, San Francisco is still posting some of the best employment numbers in the country and office development hasn’t slowed – two other indicators to watch.

A boost in sublease space can help companies feeling the squeeze from the city’s 8.1 vacancy rate, one of the lowest in the nation. The companies shedding the space get to cash in, too.

The digital real estate marketplace Trulia (NASDAQ:TRLA), for example, just put two floors – 26,600 square feet – up for sublease in the new, gleaming 535 Mission St. tower. A spokesman said the company is “investigating opportunities in the normal course of business” and taking advantage of San Francisco’s “hot commercial real estate market.” The company was also just acquired by Zillow, which also put about 20,000 square feet of its 222 Bush St. on the sublease market.

Even Salesforce (NASDAQ:CRM) is subleasing about 144,000 square feet in One California St. and 70,000 square feet in 123 Mission St. as it moves into its eventual urban campus next to the Transbay Transit Center.

Other available sublease spaces include Microsoft’s 30,000 square feet at 835 Market St., Conversant’s 32,000 square feet at 160 Spear St. and IZ-ON’s 40,000 square feet at 600 Harrison St.

In San Carlos and Redwood City, new sublease openings by SoftBank and DreamWorks add up to about to 400,000 square feet
“In most cases, sublet space has been added by companies that are banking space for future use and want to monetize in the meantime,” according to Savills Studley’s latest market report. “The sublet space provides scant relief to a space-parched market.”

Link to article: Office Space Bubble

Apr

San Francisco Commercial Real Estate News: Warehouses become highrises

Warehouses become highrises: Map of S.F.’s Central SoMa real estate boom
Source: San Francisco Business Times
Reporter: Cory Weinberg
Posted: April 6, 2015

When you look at the map of some of the most ambitious projects that developers are proposing in South of Market, they’re concentrated along the new Central Subway and near the current Caltrain station at 4th and Townsend Streets.

On Friday, the Business Times reported that a family trust called Solbrach Property Group filed plans to build a 350-foot residential highrise with 426 units at 4th and Brannan Streets. Around that block, huge office and residential projects by CIM Group and Tishman Speyer will transform the industrial area that is being rezoned.

The Board of Supervisors is expected to green light the rezoning by early next year. That will unlock huge value for landowners to build taller office or residential buildings, which would replace the existing — and less lucrative — production, distribution and repair buildings. That value has created pressure for the city to extract enough money from developers for affordable housing, which I detailed in a February cover story.

Even though the Solbrach residential development is in the very early stages, it could turn into a showdown over heights. The proposed tower will sit on a plot that’s only 16,000 square feet, so it’s not one of the largest in the neighborhood. The Planning Department only wants the building to be 250 feet high — at most — and neighborhood activist John Elberling echoes that sentiment.

“Jamming a luxury highrise into there really is too much. We want to focus development of that maximum scale — residential or commercial — on the large sites in SoMa that are at least one acre in size,” said Elberling, who runs the affordable housing advocacy group TODCO.

The Planning Department recently published guidelines for large development sites “that offer tremendous potential for transformative new development.” In its guidelines for how high developers can build, it reiterates that “the predominant character of SoMa as a mid-rise district should be retained,” instead of it becoming a slew of highrises.

Link to article: Warehouses become highrises

Apr

National CRE News: Too Much? Too Fast? Part II

Too Much? Too Fast? (Part II)
Investors Digging Deeper for Best Potential Returns CRE Investors Still See Plenty of Opportunities To Be Had if You Know Where and What To Look For

By: Mark Heschmeyer
Source: Costar
Date: April 1, 2015

While some commercial real estate investors are starting to voice concern over the impact of the glut of investment capital on prices and underwriting, for many others the question prompted by the flood of capital earmarked for CRE investment is what to do with it all.

As CoStar News reported in Part I of this two-part story last week, the grumblings mostly appear to be focused on escalating prices for large trophy assets in major coastal core markets and the multifamily markets where development activity has already heated up and is threatening to curtail pricing growth.

“Buyers are extremely aggressive in gateway and other primary markets, mainly in the multifamily, industrial and core-located office asset classes,” said Ryan Tobias, founding partner of Triad Real Estate Partners in Chicago. “It’s seemingly a seller’s market in those places and there’s almost certainly a bubble somewhere as the rent growth and associated pricing cannot continue forever.”

However, the aggressiveness and the easy availability of cheap money aren’t necessarily deal breakers, according to Tobias. Rather, he said the trend should cause investors to pay even closer attention to market fundamentals and understand conditions in each submarket down to the block.

For Part II of this story, we asked investors and brokers where they see the best returns available for the money. And while some are still concerned about putting more money into core markets and in certain multifamily markets, that doesn’t mean there aren’t good returns to be had in those products and places. Real wage growth is just starting to take hold and thus core office and multifamily product still have legs, many said.

Smart money seems to be moving to certain interior or secondary metropolitan areas, Tobias said, but not to every submarket within those areas.

Other factors also have to be weighed in the balance beyond location, said Don Guarino, vice president of valuation and research for Aegon USA Realty Advisors.

“Tenant retention, appropriate capital expenditures, proper leverage levels, technology upgrades and energy efficiencies will be largely responsible for outperformance in the coming years as cap rate compression nears the end of its course,” Guarino said.

In the quest for overlooked markets, investors can over extend, warns Guarino. Tertiary markets may be a “bridge too far” if there is not a well-founded exit strategy, no matter how good the tenant or value-add opportunities in a given market.

Benjamin B. Lacy, chairman of Lacy Ltd. in Washington, DC, agrees with the importance of maintaining investment discipline no matter the size or location of the market.

“I think there’s room to run in some overlooked secondary and tertiary markets. But you have to be very careful with your underwriting and due diligence and to make sure the market is liquid enough to project a realistic exit at the end of the holding period. I am getting strong pitches in Salt Lake City,” Lacy said.

Kevin McGowan, president of McGowan Corporate Real Estate Advisors in one of those tertiary markets (Allentown, PA), said plenty of opportunities still exist for disciplined investors. The key, he said is “to be flexible and really press their network for off-market deals. There is lots of lazy capital trying to chase down the heavily marketed product. (But) lots of really good corporate assets are out there if you are willing to dig.”

Brian Poitras, president, chief investment officer of Waldorf Capital Management, said his firm is pursuing a modified core strategy looking for overlooked opportunities in markets, such as where he is based in Boston.

“The asset class that I think presents the most opportunity righ now is well located Class B office space right around core markets, transit hubs and in growing urban infill locations,” Poitras said. “The demands of office users are changing. There will be many older, obsolete office buildings in great locations, but with poor lighting, poor air circulation, and inefficient floorplans. They could see a huge value boost through smart redevelopment.”

Link to article: Too Much Too Fast Part II

Mar

National Commercial Real Estate News: Suburban Office Attracting Investor Interest

Source: CoStar
Author: Randyl Drummer
Date: March 18, 2015

LONG OVERLOOKED, SUBURBAN OFFICE ATTRACTING INCREASED INVESTOR INTEREST
Buyers Swooping in to Pick Off Both Well-Leased and Increasingly Vacancy-Challenged Office Properties Outside CBDs

After taking its lumps well into the ongoing office market recovery, suburban office property is finally garnering increased investor interest. As recently as January 2013, after rounds of corporate downsizing during and after the recession sent suburban office vacancy rates as high as 50% in some markets, analysts were writing the latest obituary of suburban office parks, shopping centers and other far-flung properties as places where no one among the coming wave of millennials would want to work, shop or live.

But now, suburban office is where the action is, thanks to yield-starved real estate investors priced out of expensive CBD assets and continued job growth, especially for office-using industries.

In recent quarters, investors have responded to a spate of opportunistic and value-add plays, many involving vacancy risk that often goes hand in hand with suburban office investments. Buyers have been lured by the wide pricing spreads between well-leased properties north of 90% occupancy and challenged buildings between 50% and 75% occupancy, according to CoStar Portfolio Strategy. While that spread has compressed from 144% in 2011 to 97% in 2014, it is still double the 2006 level of 48%.

“By leasing up a property, investors can still achieve value-add, boosted returns. The icing on the cake for value-add investors is that 75% of metros will likely achieve occupancy gains over the next three years, which makes it easier to lease up vacant space,” said CoStar real estate economist Sam Tenenbaumin in a recent client note.

Increasingly overseas investors, usually focused on the safest core properties, are bidding on suburban office properties, according to Mary Sullivan Kelly, senior vice president and chief research officer for Colliers International.

“With the infusion of foreign capital seeking predominantly trophy CBD assets, other institutional equity will be forced to look towards B product and other value-add plays, driving up pricing in that sector,” Kelly said.

What has many investors swinging for the suburban ooffice fences is the recent homerun pulled off by Rubenstein Partners and Grubb Properties. In what The Wall Street Journal called “a casebook study of how to make money on suburban office property,” the pair of investors paid $26 million for an excess 67-acre office park in North Carolina’s Research Triangle Park from telecom company Ericsson. The Rubenstein-Grubb venture planned to upgrade the pair of vacant office buildings totaling 467,000 square feet and put the sapce up for lease, hoping to emulate the success they had in repositioning a former GlaxoSmithKline property nearby.

As it turns out, computer-maker Lenovo Group Ltd. was looking for a home in the Research Triangle area for the server business it had purchased from IBM and decided to lease the entire project from Rubenstein-Grubb in March 2014. With the Lenovo lease in hand, the investors hired Cushman & Wakfield to shop the property to prospective buyers. In February 2015, a joint venture between UK-based 90 North Real Estate Partners and Dubai-based Arzan Wealth bought the suburban campus for $127 million, just 15 months after Rubenstein and Grubb’s acquisition of the then-vacant property, and less than a year after Lenovo signed a long-term lease for the entire campus.

That kind of success attracts a lot of interest and many property owners who managed to hold onto their suburban office assets through the recession are eager to test the market. Case in point is New York City fund DRA Advisors and its partner Brandywine Realty of Radnor, PA. According to industry newsletter Real Estate Alert, the pair have put a 1.6 million-square-foot portfolio of 29 suburban office properties in Pennsylvania back on the market seeking a reported $200 million, or $125 per square foot. Market observers are eager to see if the timing proves better this time after pulling the portfolio off the market after it was first offered last summer.

Meanwhile other investors are moving in to take advantage of the improving prospects for suburban office market, attracted by declining vacancy rates amid stepped up leasing volume and historically low levels of new construction.

The most noteworthy being Duke Realty Corp.’s deal to sell a major portion of its suburban U.S. office portfolio for $1.12 billion to a joint venture of Starwood Capital Group, Vanderbilt Partners and Trinity Capital Advisors. The deal involves 62 office buildings with 6.9 million square feet of combined space and 57 acres of undeveloped land and includes all of Duke’s wholly owned suburban office properties in Nashville, Raleigh, South Florida and St. Louis.

Just this week, a partnership of New York-based Angelo, Gordon & Co. and Atlantic Realty Cos. acquired four suburban office buildings totaling 499,696 square feet in Reston, VA for approximately $82 million. The portfolio, located near the Dulles Access Road and the new Silver Line Metro station, is only half-leased, which investors increasingly view as hlf-full rather than half-empty.

Chicago: Ground Zero for Suburban Office

There may be no better place to gauge the current condition of the U.S. suburban office market than communities on the outskirts of Chicago such as Libertyville or Hoffman Estates, once the home of such corporate mainstays as Sears Holdings Corp., Motorola and AT&T.

After Motorola Mobility was purchased by Google in 2012 and resold to Lenovo last year, the company relocated 3,000 employees from its Libertyville, IL office campus between 2012 and 2014, leaving an empty shell at the 84-acre property built in 1994 that’s typical of the heyday of 1970s through ’90s era suburban corporate office properties.

Philadelphia-based Binswanger marketed the property, one of the largest suburban office campuses in the Chicago market, starting in January 2013. The Motorola listing in the Lake County office submarket — which suffered from a vacancy rate of more than 30% at mid-year 2014, highest among all suburban Chicago submarkets — lingered on the market for 18 months, similar to the vacancy drag at numerous office parks across the country from Northern New Jersey to the outer suburban rings of Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego in Southern California.

Last year, Rockville, MD-based BECO Management Inc. scooped up the five-building, 1.1 million-square-foot former Motorola Mobility campus for $9.5 million, a mere $8.50 per square foot. BECO has embarked on a major renovation and the property will be ready for occupancy later this year.

More recently, a partnership of Itasca, IL-based Hamilton Partners and Accesso Partners jointly acquired The Esplanade at Locust Point, consisting of four Class A office and R&D buildings totaling 1.05 million square feet in Downers Grove within Chicago’s East-West corridor submarket. The buildings are 89% occupied, with tenants including Coca Cola Co., Prudential Insurance, Hewlett-Packard, Caterpillar Logistics, Siemens, American General Life, General Services Administration and Hillshire Brands/Tyson Foods.

“I can say with great confidence that this is the premier portfolio of suburban office buildings in the entire Chicago marketplace,” states Ariel Bentata, managing director investments and co-founder of Hallandale Beach, FL-based Accesso Partners.

Investors hope the risks pay-off as the increased transaction velocity is still a work in progress. Despite the strong finish, the huge corporate departures earlier in the year left the overall suburban Chicago vacancy rate at 21.1%, a bit higher than the 21% posted at year-end 2013.

Article Link: Suburban Office

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Jan

San Francisco’s Vacancy Decreases to 3.9%

The San Francisco Industrial market ended the fourth quarter 2014 with a vacancy rate of 3.9%. The vacancy rate was down over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling positive 278,485 square feet in the fourth quarter. Vacant sublease space decreased in the quarter, end- ing the quarter at 285,144 square feet. Rental rates ended the fourth quarter at $15.94, an increase over the previous quarter. There was 108,080 square feet still under construction at the end of the quarter.

ABSORPTION
Net absorption for the overall San Francisco Industrial market was positive 278,485 square feet in the fourth quarter2014. That compares to negative (98,393) square feet in the third quarter 2014, positive 979,226 square feet in the second quarter 2014, and positive 106,799 square feet in the first quarter 2014.

Tenants moving out of large blocks of space in 2014 include: FedEx moving out of (60,100) square feet at 200 Littlefield Ave, Vitasoy moving out of (52,500) square feet at 584 Eccles Ave, and KaloBios Pharmaceuticals moving out of(49,351) square feet at 260 E Grand Ave.

The Flex building market recorded net absorption of positive 131,243 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014, compared to positive 38,309 square feet in the third quarter 2014, positive 299,408 in the second quarter 2014, and negative (33,399) in the first quarter 2014.

The Warehouse building market recorded net absorption of positive 147,242 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014 com- pared to negative (136,702) square feet in the third quarter 2014, positive 679,818 in the second quarter 2014, and positive 140,198 in the first quarter 2014.

VACANCY
The Industrial vacancy rate in the San Francisco market area decreased to 3.9% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014. The vacancy rate was 4.2% at the end of the third quarter 2014, 4.1% at the end of the second quarter 2014, and 5.7% at the end of the first quarter 2014.

Flex projects reported a vacancy rate of 5.3% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014, 5.8% at the end of the third quarter 2014, 6.0% at the end of the second quarter 2014, and 9.3% at the end of the first quarter 2014.

Warehouse projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.4% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014, 3.7% at the end of third quarter 2014, 3.5% at the end of the second quarter 2014, and 4.5% at the end of the first quarter 2014.

RENTAL RATES
The average quoted asking rental rate for available Industrial space was $15.94 per square foot per year at the end of the fourth quarter 2014 in the San Francisco market area. This represented a 4.4% increase in quoted rental rates from the end of the third quarter 2014, when rents were reported at $15.27 per square foot.

The average quoted rate within the Flex sector was $25.58 per square foot at the end of the fourth quarter 2014, while Warehouse rates stood at $12.05. At the end of the third quarter 2014, Flex rates were $24.68 per square foot, and Warehouse rates were $11.65.

DELIVERIES AND CONSTRUCTION
During the fourth quarter 2014, no new space was completed in the San Francisco market area. This compares to 0 buildings completed in the previous three quarters. There were 108,080 square feet of Industrial space under construction at the end of the fourth quarter 2014. The largest projects underway at the end of fourth quarter 2014 were 901 Rankin St, an 82,480-square-foot building with 100% of its space pre-leased by Goodeggs and Mollie Stone’s Markets, and 1 Kelly Ct, a 25,600-square-foot facility that CS Bio Company, Inc. expanded.

INVENTORY
Total Industrial inventory in the San Francisco market area amounted to 94,659,417 square feet in 4,843 buildings as of the end of the fourth quarter 2014. The Flex sector consisted of 23,849,302 square feet in 789 projects. The Warehouse sector consisted of 70,810,115 square feet in 4,054 buildings. Within the Industrial market there were 511 owner-occupied buildings accounting for 12,380,944 square feet of Industrial space.

SALES ACTIVITY
Tallying industrial building sales of 15,000 square feet or larger, San Francisco industrial sales figures fell during the third quarter 2014 in terms of dollar volume compared to the second quarter of 2014. In the third quarter, nine industrial transactions closed with a total volume of $83,684,000. The nine buildings totaled 377,408 square feet and the average price per square foot equated to $221.73 per square foot. That compares to 20 trans- actions totaling $109,016,000 in the second quarter. The total square footage was 558,793 for an average price per square foot of $195.09.

Total year-to-date industrial building sales activity in 2014 is up compared to the previous year. In the first nine months of 2014, the market saw 36 industrial sales transactions with a total volume of $346,298,100. The price per square foot has averaged $215.98 this year. In the first nine months of 2013, the market posted 19 transactions with a total volume of $107,082,100. The price per square foot averaged $166.89.

Cap rates have been higher in 2014, averaging 6.70%, compared to the first nine months of last year when they averaged 6.10%.

Source: CoStar Year End 2014 Industrial Report

Jan

2015 Forecast: SF Office Spillover

Source: San Francisco Business Journal
Reporter: Cory Weinberg
Date: January 2, 2015

If the much-hyped San Francisco spillover of office tenants is ever going to happen, this will be the year. The city’s squeeze could start to take a noticeable toll in 2015, and other cities will be waiting with giant nets to scoop up big-name companies.

Until now, the tenant trickle to the East Bay and San Mateo County has been mostly talk. Companies recruiting young workers have flocked to San Francisco and seem to think the high cost of renting offices is worth the trouble.

Two converging forces may turn the hype into reality. First, San Francisco officials expect the city this year to hit the new office space cap imposed by the 1986 law under Proposition M.

About 4 million square feet of large office projects will be up for approval this year, enough to tip over the annual limit and constrain what gets approved. That doesn’t mean that office users will see much of an effect this year, but it is a restriction on new space nonetheless that may eventually send office rents much, much higher.

Meanwhile, Oakland, Daly City, San Mateo and San Ramon all have openings in large, attractive buildings near transit.
Oakland’s Sears building should land a tech tenant in the first half of 2015.

“San Francisco tech job growth has been seven times greater than in Silicon Valley. When you see the stats, it’s stunning,” said CBRE broker Bill Cumbelich, who is leasing the Sears building.

Bay Meadows in San Mateo also has its first office building under construction, while Bishop Ranch in San Ramon has 1 million square feet up for grabs. Daly City’s DC Station has space available, too. Still, cities in northern San Mateo County and the Tri-Valley haven’t been gotten down to single-digit vacancy rates.

“The market is getting very tight for large blocks of space and almost all of it is a result of local expansion, not San Francisco spillover,” said Bill Nork of Newmark Cornish & Carey. “Everyone was hoping, but it didn’t happen.”
Wait ’till this year?

5 key events from 2014

Salesforce dominates: Salesforce was ready to drive into Mission Bay office space when it hit the brakes. Instead, S.F.’s largest tech tenant made two huge office plays. First, it took 714,000 square feet in a Transbay tower. Later, it paid $640 million for the 50 Fremont tower.

Mission Bay’s tech future: There are about 300 acres in the Mission Bay neighborhood, and 30 of them could change the place’s whole dynamic. Uber announced it will build its headquarters there, while Kilroy Realty Corp. sketched plans for a new tech haven and the Golden State Warriors plotted office buildings next to its new arena. The turn toward tech offices could alter the identity of Mission Bay as a research hub.

Big plays for tech on the Peninsula and in East Bay: Four major office developments outside of San Francisco opened up over 2 million square feet of space geared toward tech tenants: the Sears building in Oakland, Bay Meadows in San Mateo, Bishop Ranch in San Ramon and DC Station in Daly City.

Rent gets too high for nonprofits: Increasing office rents, gentrifying neighborhoods and cheaper space in Oakland has created an exodus across the Bay for nonprofits. According to a city report, half of the city’s nonprofits left between 2011 and 2013 as rents have doubled to more than $50 a square foot in the last few years.

Redwood City’s emergence: The southern Peninsula city’s office market has the second-lowest vacancy and the second-highest rents in San Mateo County thanks in part to big plays by Google and Box this year. First, Box locked up 334,000 square feet at Crossing/900. Then, Google inked 934,000 square feet at Pacific Shores. Developers have since flooded the city with new proposals to build offices.

Link to article:
SF Office Spillover

Nov

820 26th Street – LEASED!

Calco Commercial has leased 820 26th Street. 820 26th Street is 6,300+/- square feet of prime warehouse and distribution space located one block away from the 3rd Street rail line. The property is of concrete, tilt-up construction, totally clearspan, with 20′ ceilings, sprinklers, two drive-in loading doors & heavy power.

If you have questions about the San Francisco commercial real estate market or our other available listings, call 415.970.0000.