San Francisco Commercial Brokerage | Calco Commercial, Inc.

San Francisco’s Office Vacancy Decreases to 6.8%

The San Francisco Office market ended the first quarter 2016 with a vacancy rate of 6.8%. The vacancy rate was down over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling positive 887,196 square feet in the first quarter. Vacant sublease space increased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 1,412,643 square feet. Rental rates ended the first quarter at $52.43, an increase over the previous quarter. A total of two buildings delivered to the market in the quarter totaling 480,000 square feet, with 5,352,288 square feet still under construction at the end of the quarter.

Absorption
Net absorption for the overall San Francisco office market was positive 887,196 square feet in the first quarter 2016. That compares to positive 680,988 square feet in the fourth quarter
2015, negative (297,950) square feet in the third quarter 2015, and positive 1,332,620 square feet in the second quarter 2015.

The Class-A office market recorded net absorption of positive 669,332 square feet in the first quarter 2016, compared to positive 689,681 square feet in the fourth quarter 2015, negative (25,939) in the third quarter 2015, and positive 825,531 in the second quarter 2015.

The Class-B office market recorded net absorption of positive 248,697 square feet in the first quarter 2016, com- pared to negative (39,232) square feet in the fourth quarter
2015, negative (216,768) in the third quarter 2015, and positive 555,278 in the second quarter 2015.

The Class-C office market recorded net absorption of negative (30,833) square feet in the first quarter 2016 com- pared to positive 30,539 square feet in the fourth quarter
2015, negative (55,243) in the third quarter 2015, and negative (48,189) in the second quarter 2015.

Net absorption for San Francisco’s central business district was positive 660,981 square feet in the first quarter 2016. That compares to positive 163,176 square feet in the fourth quarter
2015, negative (267,529) in the third quarter 2015, and positive 387,476 in the second quarter 2015.

Net absorption for the suburban markets was positive 226,215 square feet in the first quarter 2016. That compares to positive 517,812 square feet in fourth quarter 2015, negative (30,421) in the third quarter 2015, and positive 945,144 in the second quarter 2015.

Vacancy
The office vacancy rate in the San Francisco market area decreased to 6.8% at the end of the first quarter 2016. The vacancy rate was 7.0% at the end of the fourth quarter 2015,
6.6% at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 6.4% at the end of the second quarter 2015.

Class-A projects reported a vacancy rate of 7.7% at the end of the first quarter 2016, 8.0% at the end of the fourth quarter 2015, remained the same at 7.4% at the end of the third quarter 2015 compared to the previous quarter.

Class-B projects reported a vacancy rate of 6.7% at the end of the first quarter 2016, 7.1% at the end of the fourth quarter 2015, 6.7% at the end of the third quarter 2015, and
6.3% at the end of the second quarter 2015.

Class-C projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.8% at the end of the first quarter 2016, 3.7% at the end of fourth quarter 2015, 3.9% at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 3.6% at the end of the second quarter 2015.

The overall vacancy rate in San Francisco’s central business district at the end of the first quarter 2016 decreased to 6.3%. The vacancy rate was 7.0% at the end of the fourth quarter 2015, 6.0% at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 5.8% at the end of the second quarter 2015.

The vacancy rate in the suburban markets increased to 7.5% in the first quarter 2016. The vacancy rate was 7.1% at the end of the fourth quarter 2015, 7.5% at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 7.4% at the end of the second quarter 2015.

Sublease Vacancy
The amount of vacant sublease space in the San Francisco market increased to 1,412,643 square feet by the end of the first quarter 2016, from 1,352,132 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2015. There was 1,275,923 square feet vacant at the end of the third quarter 2015 and 1,102,001 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2015.

San Francisco’s Class-A projects reported vacant sublease space of 998,469 square feet at the end of first quarter 2016, up from the 967,996 square feet reported at the end of the fourth quarter 2015. There were 857,982 square feet of sub- lease space vacant at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 748,203 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2015.

Class-B projects reported vacant sublease space of 333,325 square feet at the end of the first quarter 2016, up from the 329,958 square feet reported at the end of the fourth quarter 2015. At the end of the third quarter 2015 there were 342,020 square feet, and at the end of the second quarter 2015 there were 298,324 square feet vacant.

Class-C projects reported increased vacant sublease space from the fourth quarter 2015 to the first quarter 2016. Sublease vacancy went from 54,178 square feet to 80,849 square feet during that time. There was 75,921 square feet at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 55,474 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2015.

Sublease vacancy in San Francisco’s central business district stood at 673,271 square feet at the end of the first quarter 2016. It was 595,812 square feet at the end of the fourth quar- ter 2015, 543,796 square feet at the end of the third quarter 2015, and 491,777 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2015.

Sublease vacancy in the suburban markets ended the first quarter 2016 at 739,372 square feet. At the end of the fourth quarter 2015 sublease vacancy was 756,320 square feet, was 732,127 square feet at the end of the third quarter 2015, and was 610,224 square feet at the end of the second quarter
2015.

Rental Rates
The average quoted asking rental rate for available office space, all classes, was $52.43 per square foot per year at the end of the first quarter 2016 in the San Francisco market area. This represented a 1.1% increase in quoted rental rates from the end of the fourth quarter 2015, when rents were reported at
$51.84 per square foot.

The average quoted rate within the Class-A sector was $54.11 at the end of the first quarter 2016, while Class-B rates stood at $51.77, and Class-C rates at $46.73. At the end of the fourth quarter 2015, Class-A rates were $53.77 per square foot, Class-B rates were $50.94, and Class-C rates were $45.57.

The average quoted asking rental rate in San Francisco’s CBD was $57.99 at the end of the first quarter 2016, and $50.36 in the suburban markets. In the fourth quarter 2015, quoted rates were $58.19 in the CBD and $49.47 in the suburbs.

Inventory
Total office inventory in the San Francisco market area amounted to 165,448,464 square feet in 3,843 buildings as of the end of the first quarter 2016. The Class-A office sector consisted of 77,319,980 square feet in 304 projects. There were 1,437 Class-B buildings totaling 64,146,043 square feet, and the Class-C sector consisted of 23,982,441 square feet in 2,102 buildings. Within the Office market there were 209 owner- occupied buildings accounting for 18,858,040 square feet of office space.

Sales Activity
Tallying office building sales of 15,000 square feet or larger, San Francisco office sales figures fell during the fourth quarter 2015 in terms of dollar volume compared to the third quarter of 2015.

In the fourth quarter, 14 office transactions closed with a total volume of $1,043,890,500. The 14 buildings totaled 1,634,104 square feet and the average price per square foot equated to $638.82 per square foot. That compares to 13 transactions totaling $1,955,263,000 in the third quarter 2015. The total square footage in the third quarter was 2,904,410 square feet for an average price per square foot of $673.20.

Total office building sales activity in 2015 was down com- pared to 2014. In the twelve months of 2015, the market saw 48 office sales transactions with a total volume of $4,814,873,500. The price per square foot averaged $651.62. In the same twelve months of 2014, the market posted 76 transactions with a total volume of $6,456,094,000. The price per square foot averaged
$544.50.

Cap rates have been lower in 2015, averaging 4.76% compared to the same period in 2014 when they averaged 4.88%. One of the largest transactions that occurred within the last four quarters in the San Francisco market is the sale of 333 Bush St in San Francisco. This 546,182-square-foot office building sold for $378,500,000, or $692.99 per square foot. The property sold on 12/24/2015, at a 3.70% cap rate.

source: CoStar 1st Quarter 2016 San Francisco Office Market Report

Source: San Francisco Chronicle
By: Kathleen Pender
Date Posted: December 3, 2015

Fierce demand for tech workers and office space in the Bay Area continues to push wages and rents into the stratosphere.

In San Francisco, the average annual wage for tech company workers rose to $176,275 in 2014, up 12.8 percent from the year before. That was the biggest increase among 36 markets nationwide, according to JLL, a commercial real estate services firm.

The wage might sound high, because it includes salary, bonuses, income from stock options, severance pay, cash value of meals, tips and certain other types of compensation.

San Mateo County had the nation’s highest average tech company wage last year, $240,663. That was actually down 23 percent from 2013, when the county’s average was probably distorted by a $3.3 billion stock option gain reaped by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. It was also skewed in 2012, when the Menlo Park company went public and Zuckerberg made a $2.1 billion profit exercising options, said JLL Vice President Amber Schiada.

“It’s crazy how just one company can move the needle, but San Mateo’s tech-job base is small” compared with neighboring counties, Schiada said. Last year, with no Zuckerberg options in the picture, San Mateo County’s average tech wage looked a little more like its neighbors’.

In Santa Clara County, the average tech company wage was $211,874, up 8.4 percent from 2013. In Alameda and Contra Costa counties, it rose to $121,747, up 6 percent.

These numbers, derived from federal and state labor market data, reflect average wages in eight industries selected by JLL: computer/electronic product manufacturing, electrical equipment manufacturing, e-retailers, online auctions, computer systems design, data processing and hosting, software publishers, and other information services.

By comparison, the average wage in all industries nationwide last year was $51,364 in 2014, up 3.1 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The growing disparity between tech workers and everyone else is putting pressure on cities to raise their minimum wage and even helped win a pay raise for tech bus drivers, said Steven Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. But these gains at the bottom of the income scale “are swamped by increases in housing prices, mostly rent.”

Office rents soar: The same bidding wars driving up tech wages and housing are also driving up the cost of office space. The average asking rent in the third quarter was $66.80 per square foot per year in San Francisco, up 12.6 percent over the previous 12 months. It was $53.49 in San Mateo County, up 16.4 percent, and $41.68 in Santa Clara County, up 3 percent. That compares with a U.S. average of $30.59 per square foot.

Tech companies hoping to avoid the Bay Area’s high cost of labor, housing and office space are considering locating in secondary and tertiary tech hubs. In a report, JLL analyzed 37 markets based on their costs (wages, office space and housing) and startup opportunity (measured by employment and wage growth, Millennial workforce and education levels, patent activity, access to venture capital and proximity to a tech cluster or giant).

Based on these factors, San Francisco offered the highest startup opportunity but also the highest cost. Markets that offered high opportunity and more reasonable costs included Austin, Seattle-Bellevue, Denver, Chicago and Washington. Places with high startup opportunity and low costs include Las Vegas, Orlando and Nashville.

“If you are a young tech company, especially one that is sensitive to cost,” those markets look more attractive, Schiada said.

The report pointed out that only 59 percent of unicorns — private companies valued at $1 billion or more — are now based in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, down from 76 percent in 2014.

That said, Silicon Valley “is still the center of the tech universe” and will be for the foreseeable future, Schiada said.

Santa Clara County was by far the largest center of leasing activity over the past year, measured by leases of 20,000 square feet or greater signed by tech companies. Such leases accounted for 5.4 million square feet, more than twice as much as in the No. 2 market for tech leasing, San Francisco.

Which companies leased the most new space? In Santa Clara County it was Google, which signed up for 2.1 million square feet in Mountain View. In San Francisco it was Uber, which took on 310,000 additional square feet. In San Mateo County it was Survey Monkey, which leased 210,000 square feet at Bay Meadows. In the East Bay, it was Workday, which rented 151,000 square feet in Pleasanton, Schiada said.

These numbers exclude companies that purchased major new office space, including Uber in Oakland and Salesforce.com in San Francisco.

Rents are soaring …

Average asking rents for office space in the nation’s 10 most expensive tech submarkets:

Downtown Palo Alto: $98.68

Downtown Mountain View: $87.53

Mission Bay/China Basin, S.F.: $81.50

Hudson Square, N.Y.: $81.50

Soho, N.Y.: $79.80

Gramercy Park, N.Y.: $76.58

Menlo Park**: $73.44

South Financial District, S.F.: $68.61

North Financial District, S.F.: $68.53

East Cambridge, Boston: $67.21

*Per square foot, per year for full-service leases in the third quarter of 2015

**Excludes Sand Hill Road

Source: JLL

… And so are wages

Top 10 markets for tech company wages

Market

Annual wage, 2014*; Change from 2013

San Mateo County: $240,663; -23.5%

Santa Clara County: $211,874; 8.4%

San Francisco: $176,275; 12.8%

Seattle-Bellevue; $154,390; 7.4%

New York City-Brooklyn: $135,339; 7.8%

Boston: $131,278; 3.9%

Alameda & Contra Costa counties: $121,747; 6.0%

Northern Virginia: $119,901; 2.6%

Portland: $112,185; 7.8%

Suburban Maryland: $109,027: 5.4%

*Includes salary, bonuses, income from stock options, severance pay, cash value of meals, tips and certain other types of compensation.

Sources: JLL, Bureau of Labor Statistics, California Employment Development Department

Link to Article: Wages, Rents Up

Category: San Francisco Commercial Brokerage (2)

San Francisco CRE News: 2016 First Quarter Office Statistics

San Francisco CRE Tech News: Rents & Wages still Soaring in Bay Area