Category: commercial real estate news (106)

Highest Growth Levels since 2007

Source: CoStar
By: Mark Heschmeyer
Date Posted: March 23, 2016

For commercial property owners, 2015 was a very good year. According to early analysis of securitized loan results through February of 2016, the commercial properties backing the loans posted strong net operating income (NOI) growth, increasing 3.8% on average in 2015.

Average NOI for commercial property backing CMBS loans showed a big jump in 2015, compared with 2.66% in 2014 and 2.64% in 2013, according to analysis by Wells Fargo Securities.

BuildingOwner

The Wells Fargo analysis is based on NOIs reported for more than 6,000 loans in conduit CMBS transactions.

While Wells Fargo cautioned the results are preliminary, if the growth rate stays near the current level, it would mark the highest change since the financial crisis, surpassing the 3.4% annual NOI average increase in 2012.

Hotel, self-storage and multifamily properties backing CMBS loans were the lead profit-centers, driving average NOI increases of 8.6%, 8.5% and 7%, respectively.

Link to article: NOI Growth

Google’s Medical Technology Division, Verily, Subleases Large Office Campus in South San Francisco

Source: CoStar
By: Steve Wells
Date Posted: March 9, 2016

Verily, formerly called Google Life Sciences, has subleased 407,000 square feet from Amgen to establish a separate headquarters in South San Francisco for the new Google division, which is gearing up to provide pioneering technology for medical research and devices.

Verily will occupy the former Onyx Pharmaceuticals office campus consisting of three Class A office buildings located at 249, 259, and 269 E. Grand Ave.

249 E Grand

The planned move 30 miles north from Google’s Mountain View, CA, headquarters, will place the new firm within a global hub for the biotech industry. It also takes a big chunk of the nearly 700,000 square feet of excess space Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is seeking to sublet in the area. Amgen closed its Onyx Pharmaceuticals subsidiary last year after acquiring the cancer drug developer in 2013 for $9.7 billion.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc., (NYSE: ARE), a real estate investment trust that focuses on science and technology campuses in urban locations, owns the three buildings. The recently developed campus also has two land parcels representing nearly 400,000 square feet of potential expansion space.

An initial 400 Verily employees are expected to relocate to the new campus by the end of this year with the expectation that the total number at the location could grow to as many as 1,000 through future expansions.

“We are honored that Verily has chosen to expand into one of Alexandria’s world-class collaborative science and technology campuses,” said Stephen A. Richardson, chief operating officer and San Francisco regional market director of Alexandria. “Through our long-term relationship with Google, which dates back to 1998, we have been able to provide Verily with highly curated, innovative and integrated campus solution, which will help support its mission to use technology to better understand health, as well as prevent, detect and manage disease.”

Google Office Campus Sublease in SSF

Economic, Regulatory Headwinds May Slow Lending Pace in 2016

Source: CoStar
By: Mark Heschmeyer
Date Posted: March 2, 2016

The total amount of commercial real estate loans held by U.S. banks and savings and loans saw a noticeable jump in the fourth quarter of 2015 over the previous quarter. The total amount of CRE loans outstanding held by FDIC-insured institutions increased 3.1% to $1.85 trillion at year-end from three months earlier. That followed an increase of 2.7% from mid-year to third quarter, according to the FDIC.

The $1.85 trillion year-end 2015 total CRE loans outstanding compares to $1.63 trillion at the last peak of the CRE markets at the end of June 2007.

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Multifamily loans continued to increase at the fastest pace quarter to quarter, going up 4.6% to $15 billion from third quarter 2015 to the year-end total of $344 billion.

Non-residential commercial real estate lending totals jumped by $25 billion (3.6%) to $733 billion during the same timeframe.

Construction and development loan totals jumped by $8.88 billion (3.3%) to $275 billion.

The asset quality of CRE loans on bank books also continued to improve. Delinquent CRE loan balances declined for a 22nd consecutive quarter. At year-end, total delinquent CRE loans on the nation’s banks’ books equaled $19.8 billion, down 5.5% from the third quarter of 2015.

At the last peak of the CRE markets, delinquent CRE loans totaled $27.6 billion.

The total dollar volume of foreclosed upon CRE properties on banks’ books equaled $8.3 billion at year-end, down 12.2% from the previous quarter. However, in June 2007, the CRE foreclosed total stood at just $2.5 billion.

Banks appear to be benefitting from the strong market for real estate in selling any repossessed properties. For all of 2015, banks posted gains of $215.7 million on the sale of foreclosed properties. That came despite posting a loss on sales in the third quarter of 2015.

The nation’s largest CRE lender, Wells Fargo Bank, which holds about $134 billion in CRE loans, posted a gain of $245 million last year on the sale of foreclosed properties.

FDIC-insured institutions reported aggregate net income of $40.4 billion in the third quarter down from $43 billion in the second quarter of 2015.

Of the 6,270 insured institutions reporting third quarter financial results, more than half (58.9%) reported year-over-year growth in quarterly earnings. That also is down slightly from the previous quarter.

Is a Bank Lending Slowdown on the Horizon?

Total loans and leases at banks increased by $199 billion during the fourth quarter of 2015, approximately 2.3%. That is about double the pace of loan growth in the third quarter and the highest total increase in bank lending in eight years.

The brisk pace of bank lending may cool this year after bank regulators issued an announcement during the fourth quarter that they planned to pay close attention to real estate lending activity among banks.

The FDIC warned in late December directing banks and savings and loans to “reinforce prudent risk-management practices” for their commercial real estate lending.

The FDIC regulators added that they would be paying close attention to bank CRE lending practices in their 2016 bank reviews. The last time the FDIC sent such a memo regarding real estate lending was in 2005.

Asked in Federal Reserve Bank January 2016 survey about their lending practices, senior loan officers reported tightening standards for multifamily loans, a moderate number reported tightening standards for construction and land development loans (CLD loans), and a small number reported tightening standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties.

“The operating environment for banks remains challenging. Interest rates have been exceptionally low for an extended period, and we are seeing signs of growing interest rate risk and credit risk,” said FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg. “Recently, domestic and international market developments have led to heightened concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and prospects for the banking industry. Thus far, the performance of banks has not been impacted materially. However, the full effect of lower energy and other commodity prices remains to be seen. Banks must remain vigilant as they manage interest rate risk, credit risk, and evolving market conditions. These challenges will continue to be a focus of ongoing supervisory attention,” Gruenberg said.

Link to Article: CRE Lending

Bowling for biotech-or how real estate is changing to meet tight space, labor markets

Source: San Francisco Business Times:
By: Ron Leuty
Date Posted: February 4, 2016

Biotech real estate developers are rolling with the times, designing space for young, cash-flush companies desperate to hold on to talented employees who want more than a bench and a place to hang their lab coats.

Take HCP Inc., which is breaking ground on the second phase of its massive Cove at Oyster Point development in the sterile-and-scrubbed heart of the life sciences industry in South San Francisco. Along with two lab and office structures totaling 230,000 square feet, HCP’s next stage of the potential 884,000-square-foot project includes 20,000 square feet of retail, attempting to fill a desperate need among the thousands of biotech workers.

TheCove

The first two-building phase, which will open in the third quarter, includes a marketplace-like food area on the ground floor as well as pool tables, table tennis and a two-lane bowling alley.

Yes, a bowling alley.

“It’s really taking an urban-type downtown environment and bringing it to a suburban market,” said HCP Executive Vice President Jon Bergschneider. “It’s large space for people to break out and team build.”

In the tech industry, such “amenity space” is commonplace in the tug-of-war to keep and attract fresh, young talent. Yet despite occasional events at individual companies — South San Francisco-based biotech granddaddy Genentech Inc. is well known for its bi-monthly “Ho-Hos” get-togethers — biotech has mostly maintained a buttoned-down focus on its benches and beakers.

Yet biotech executives and the developers who build space for their companies say that is changing. Employees can be in their labs at any time of the day or night, and the east side of Highway 101 in South San Francisco is largely a food and entertainment desert, so they often jump in their cars at break time. But the growing millennial workforce is different, they say, wanting services within walking distance.

BioMed Realty Trust, recently bought by Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), is building out amenity space at a potential 595,000-square-foot campus in Foster City for Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN). Across Oyster Point Boulevard from The Cove, BioMed has drawn up plans for similar amenities space at its Gateway of Pacific towers, which is entitled for 1 million square feet.

Companies are paying up for the space, too, in a tight real estate market. The first two tenants in the 250,000-square-foot first phase of The Cove — newly public cancer drug developer CytomX Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CTMX) and Denali Therapeutics Inc., which scored the largest startup round of venture capital for its focus on neurodegenerative diseases — will pay in the mid- to upper-$50 range after they move in the third quarter.

And for the next couple of years, The Cove and Phase 3 Real Estate Partners Inc., which last year bought the Centennial Towers project on the west side of Highway 101 and rebranded it Genesis-South San Francisco, are the main new, multiple-tenant life sciences spaces on the market.

As a result, said Rick Friday, a senior vice president at real estate brokerage CBRE Inc., the biotech real estate market remains tight. The brokerage is tracking about 1.6 million square feet of demand along the Peninsula, said Chris Jacobs, executive vice president of life sciences at CBRE.

“Ten years ago, a lot of companies could think two, three years in advance,” Friday said. “Now when companies decide they need space, they need it in 12 months or less.”

One of the first two buildings in The Cove remains unleased; the two-building second phase includes retail and a four-story parking garage — another sign of the times as developments have become denser with less surface parking.

Instead of parking, when the entire project is built out, The Cove will include a 5.5-acre open area with bocce ball, basketball and volleyball courts and a picnic area, said Scott Bohn, an HCP vice president.

The demand for The Cove’s first phase gave HCP confidence to start the second stage on time. What’s more, it helped them shape the footplates of the second phase, making them slightly smaller and more flexible for a wider variety of potential tenants, Jacobs said.

“The amenities center has really resonated as well,” Jacobs said. “Everybody we sit and talk to says, ‘It’s about time.'”

Link to article: Cove-Amenity Space

Source: CoStar
By: Randyl Drummer
Date Posted: January 28, 2016

For almost everyone involved in commercial real estate, 2015 was a very good year. The impressive recovery in commercial property values is apparent in the year-end release of the CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI), which delineate the broad price gains across property types and regions amidst record investment transaction volume in 2015.

Both the value-weighted and the equal-weighted segments of CCRSI’s U.S. Composite Index, which constitute the two broadest measures of aggregate commercial property pricing, continued to gain ground in December, the fourth quarter and for the year. Demand for core property assets was especially strong, with the value-weighted index rising 12.6% during 2015 to an all-time high of 19.1% above its pre-recession peak.

CCRSI1215a

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December transaction activity remained true to its seasonal pattern observed over the last several years, spiking in the final month of the year as investors raced to close transactions prior to year-end. The December composite pair volume of nearly $18 billion was the highest monthly total on record, helping lift total 2015 volume to $128.3 billion, a 26.2% increase from the previous peak reached in 2014.

CCRSI1215c

While pricing in core U.S. markets set records in 2015, investors moving out on the risk spectrum in search of higher yields resulted in equally strong sales activity in non-core markets and property types, as reflected in the equal-weighted U.S. Composite index. Heavily influenced by lower-value properties typical of those in secondary and tertiary markets, the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index rose 12.6% in 2015 and is now within 3.4% of its previous high water mark.

The investment-grade segment of the CCRSI equal-weighted index, capturing the performance of high-quality properties, moved to within 1% of its prior peak, while the general commercial index of smaller, lesser-quality assets remains 4.6% off its previous high water mark, according to CCRSI.

Quarterly indices for all six major property types, including the land and hospitality properties, posted double-digit gains in 2015, as did each of the four U.S. regional indices, marking the second straight year in which all the indices increased at a rate of 10% or above.

CCRSI3

The Northeast Multifamily Index was the best-performing regional property segment of 2015, rising 15.4% to end the year 44% above its 2007 high. The West Multifamily and West Office Indices also posted exceptionally strong growth of 14.8% and 13.9%, respectively, nudging the overall West Regional Index to within 1% of its pre-recession peak. The South and Midwest indices advanced by 12% and 10%, respectively, though both remained 10% or more below their prior high levels.

CCRSI1215d

CCRSI1215e

The latest quarterly data further confirmed the steady pricing gains across all six property types. The CCRSI Prime Markets Indices increased more rapidly than the broader property-type indices in 2015, suggesting that core markets remained attractive even though investors showed an increased tolerance for risk in second- and third-tier markets as market fundamentals continue to improve.

By far, the U.S. Multifamily Index showed the strongest annual rate of increase, and it remains the only U.S. property index to have surpassed its pre-recession peak, ending the year 18.8% above its 2007 high.

In particular, the Prime Multifamily Metros Index, which passed its previous peak back in June 2013, skyrocketed in 2015 to 41.4% above 2007 levels. Multifamily fundamentals remained healthy in 2015 despite unprecedented levels of new construction, with continued price appreciation even as nationwide vacancy rates held below 4% in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Link to article: CRE Soars in 2015

Full Composite Price Indices Report for CRE: January 2016 CCRSI Release

Source: Bisnow
By: Allison Nagel
Dated Posted: January 26, 2016

For the first time in history, San Francisco’s office rents have blown past Manhattan, recognizing the city and the Bay Area’s shift toward becoming the nation’s power center as more major companies establish a presence in the area. We chatted with Colliers regional executive managing director Alan Collenette about the brokerage’s new report.

Calling it San Francisco’s “Glittering Age,” Alan says the shift west with the growth of the tech industry marks an era, not a short-lived boom.

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San Francisco is the nation’s healthiest office market, Alan says. He argues the world has shifted to a knowledge-based economy that thrives on innovation, and San Francisco is its epicenter as the home to major tech firms, such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter and more, according to the report released by Colliers.

While there has been a lot of consternation about world events and economic woes, Alan tells us the worry may be blown out of proportion. On China in particular, he says exports only account for 13% of the US economy (and China makes up less than 8% of that, or just 1% of our overall economy). China is still growing strongly (more than twice the rate of US growth) with currency that hasn’t been devalued nearly as much as the currencies of other major US trading partners, he tells us. So China may import fewer products and services from the US, but will have a relatively limited direct hit on our near-term economic growth.

In addition, Alan tells us the US added an average of almost 300,000 jobs a month in Q4 and the yield curve (that harbinger of recessions) is still upward sloping (the spread between 10-year and two-year bonds is above its long-term average). Both are signs of a strong economy.

The brokerage firm’s year-end office market research study found:

-Office rents higher in San Francisco ($72.26/SF) than Manhattan ($71.26/SF);
-Vacancies of 7.2% in San Francisco vs. 9.6% in Manhattan;
-Annualized rents are up 11.8% in San Francisco;
-Sublease space at 0.7% of San Francisco’s 90M SF office market (compared with a high of 5.1% after the dot-com bust of 2002 and 1.6% during the recession in 2009);
-Absorption rates totaled nearly 180k SF in Q4 (total absorption for the year was 1,569,532 SF);
-Nearly 6.3M SF leased in San Francisco in 2015;
-36 office sales transactions totaling $3.7B closed during the year (compared with 50 sales for $5B in 2014, but still above the historical averages of $2B to $3B);
-Class-A prices rose to $675/SF, compared with $615 a year ago; and Class-B prices rose to $573/SF from $508 a year ago.

The report notes San Francisco’s 7.2% vacancy rate for Q4 included four office properties that are pre-leased but not occupied (the study only counts occupied buildings): 350 Mission St, 222 Second St, 333 Brannan St and 345 Brannan St. Those buildings are expected to be occupied in the first half of this year, dropping the vacancy back to 7% or lower.

Such growth, a strong economy, high leasing rates, pre-leasing and a robust pipeline of projects under construction mean that 2016 will remain strong for office development, the study notes. Overall, there is nearly 5M SF total under construction with 36% of it pre-leased, Alan says.

Read more at: SF Office Rents Top Manhattan

Source: San Francisco Business Times
By: Cory Weinberg
Dated Posted: December 10, 2015

An acre of warehouses, sheds and gravel bunkers near the base of Potrero Hill could become home to San Francisco’s next hub of “maker” and tech office space, according to city filings.

The San Francisco Gravel Co. is in early talks with the Planning Department about whether its sprawling South of Market property at 552 Berry St. would qualify for the city’s 2014 legislation incentivizing the new construction of manufacturing space by allowing more lucrative offices on underutilized land.

It would be the second project to take advantage of the legislation now that Kilroy Realty Corp. is starting to develop 100 Hooper nearby with two-thirds slated for office use and one-third for “production, distribution and repair.” That’s a zoning designation reserved in part for manufacturing and light industrial companies that typically can’t afford high rents.

The Berry Street property is zoned for PDR and could not see offices rise on the site without the 2014 legislation.

552 Berry Street

“Based on an investigation of the property’s permit history and informal interpretation by the Planning Department staff, this property does indeed qualify under the criteria for the legislation. Further, it meets the purposes of the legislation in that SF Gravel Company had a very low employment density,” according to a letter to the city penned by consultant Badiner Urban Planning.

The gravel company, which has inhabited the property for nearly a century, also has tapped developer SKS Investments to study the site, according to the “zoning determination” letter sent to the Planning Department. It’s unclear how large the development would be if proposed.

SKS is accustomed to turning former industrial spaces into tech office beacons. The San Francisco-based company recently redeveloped the historic McClintock building – formerly used to manufacture dresses – and leased it up to biotech firm Invitae for laboratory use. It also transformed the former jewelry at 888 Brannan St. into office space for Airbnb.

Dan Kingsley, a managing partner for SKS, said “our plans are not firm” and declined to comment further.

San Francisco’s South of Market area could begin to see several office developments attached to new manufacturing spaces. Not only is Kilroy building a major property, but the city is planning to require some PDR in new large office developments under next year’s Central SoMa rezoning plan.

Until now, new PDR space has typically been economically infeasible to develop because of the law rents it generates. However, the 2014 legislation permitting office development to help fund PDR space is starting to change that.

In addition, the city has seen the rise of manufacturing companies with venture capital backing – creating a class divide with more typical ‘makers.’ That trend has concerned the like of SF Made, the influential advocacy group that will develop ‘maker’ space at 100 Hooper.

Link to article: Maker Hub coming to Potrero Hill

New Owner of high-profile Peninsula Tower aims to take biotech to new heights

Source: San Francisco Business Times
By: Ron Leuty
Date Posted: November 19, 2015

Emerging biotech companies are fighting a losing battle for space against deep-pocketed, aggressive tech companies. But Neil Fox expects to deliver a new life sciences option by this time next year.

Fox’s Phase 3 Properties Inc. closed Tuesday on its acquisition of the high-profile Centennial Towers project, nestled between San Bruno Mountain and Highway 101 in South San Francisco.

The developer plans to immediately convert part of the existing 12-story tower for biotech companies by the third quarter of 2016, then start construction of a 21-story, 400,000-square-foot biotech-centric structure to the immediate north that would come online in the second half of 2017.

centennial tower

The overall 800,000-square-foot development’s sale price wasn’t disclosed.

In a tight market for biotech labs/offices, Fox believes Phase 3’s focus on ready-to-occupy highrise space will be a winner. The vacancy rate for new biotech space in South San Francisco is in the low single digits, not counting a half-million square feet of sublease space held by Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN).

If nothing else, Phase 3’s timing is impeccable: Space in the two-building, 253,000-square-foot first phase of HCP Inc.’s (NYSE: HCP) The Cove at Oyster Point already is booked for its third-quarter 2016 opening.

By the time, Phase 3’s 150,000-square-foot south tower upgrades for biotech will be ready, Fox said, and construction will be under way on the north tower.

Two other South San Francisco biotech projects entitled for roughly 3 million square feet — BioMed Realty Trust’s (NYSE: BMR) Gateway of Pacific and Shorenstein/SKS Properties’ bayside project — haven’t yet broken ground.

Centennial Towers developer Jack Myers earlier this year considered building the planned north tower as condominiums. But Fox, whose San Diego company focuses exclusively on life sciences, said the future is in biotech.

“Our research says there’s a need across the board. That’s why QB3’s incubators (in San Francisco and Berkeley) are so full,” Fox said. “There’s no real second-generation space on the market right now.”

Indeed, a number of young and emerging life sciences companies — as well as larger, growing companies — are in a critical search for space.

Buoyed by a renewed interest by venture capital firms in early-stage drugs, those companies are bringing on more staff to push experimental treatments into studies in humans, but they often lose the space race to larger, established tech or drug-development companies that can lease floors at a time.

“We need the space last month, not a year from now,” said Ken Horne, CEO of Symic Biomedical Inc., a 17-person, two-year-old company with one potential treatment in an early-stage clinical treatment and another set to start in the first half of next year. “A year is hard for a high-growth, high-momentum startup.”

Symic is housed in the University of California-related QB3@953 life sciences incubator in San Francisco’s Dogpatch neighborhood.

But Fox’s excitement about Centennial Towers isn’t based on timing alone: The development will offer biotech companies a high-rise option they don’t otherwise have in the Bay Area, he said, as well as space that needs a minimum of work for a quick move-in.

The Cove from HCP and the Gateway of Pacific project from BioMed, which is being acquired by Blackstone Group, have played up their tech-like campuses and amenities such as a bocce ball court and walking trails. But Fox said Phase 3’s differentiator with Centennial Towers is the high rise option that rarely is offered biotech companies outside of high-cost, high-density markets such as New York and Boston.

Working with San Diego’s McFarlane Architects, Phase 3 has floor plans that Fox said work for 95 percent of biotech companies. The space is a mix of 60 percent office and 40 percent general biology and chemistry labs — all with natural light.

Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP, the architect for Centennial Towers’ unique glass-facade south structure, also is designing the north tower.

“There’s no buried space in our buildings,” Fox said. “The quality of the project, the detail that went into it (by Myers), was something that was very attractive to us.”

Link to article: Peninsula Biotech

The San Francisco Business times is reporting that Dropbox is slated to release 200,000 square feet of its current 500,000 square feet of office located at 185 Berry Street in China Basin (Dropbox looks to Shed China Basin HQ Space) at $75 a square foot. However, the article suggests that the shedding of space by Dropbox may be more about not wanting to “stay around one location” rather than a sign of a market slowdown.

As other large tech establishments and unicorns (Salesforce, Rocketfuel, Twitter, Lyft, etc.) have either put space up for sublease or plan to shift operations to other locations, market analysts are keeping watch, and some venture capitalists are growing worried (Winder is Coming). But as the Business Times’ article also points out, the availability of sublease space helps other companies who are going the ability to break into the market, or allow “…the likes of Apple to dive into San Francisco in a spaced leased by CNET” In a related article on SF Curbed (Dropbox Sheds), Mary Jo Bowling reports that “real estate pros are still reporting a healthy demand for SF commercial space, albeit with some caution.”

185 berry
(185 Berry Street)

San Francisco’s Vacancy Increases to 3.6%
Net Absorption Negative (517,362) SF in the Quarter

Source: CoStar

The San Francisco Industrial market ended the third quar- ter 2015 with a vacancy rate of 3.6%. The vacancy rate was up over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling negative (517,362) square feet in the third quarter. Vacant sublease space decreased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 337,738 square feet. Rental rates ended the third quarter at $17.82, an increase over the previous quarter. There was 293,100 square feet still under construction at the end of the quarter.

ABSORPTION

Net absorption for the overall San Francisco Industrial market was negative (517,362) square feet in the third quar- ter 2015. That compares to positive 89,907 square feet in the second quarter 2015, positive 111,275 square feet in the first quarter 2015, and positive 255,214 square feet in the fourth quarter 2014.

Tenants moving out of large blocks of space in 2015 include: Nippon Express U.S.A. moving out of (188,000) square feet at 250 Utah Ave, Tyco Electronics moving out of (184,462) square feet at 300 Constitution Dr, and Hajoca Corporation moving out of (40,000) square feet at 1111 Connecticut St.

Tenants moving into large blocks of space in 2015 include: Green Leaf moving into 105,600 square feet at 455 Valley Dr, Invitae Corporation moving into 103,213 square feet at 1400 16th St, and Flying Food Group moving into 69,500 square feet at 240 Littlefield Ave.

The Flex building market recorded net absorption of posi- tive 26,642 square feet in the third quarter 2015, compared to positive 203,145 square feet in the second quarter 2015, positive 104,924 in the first quarter 2015, and positive 114,780 in the fourth quarter 2014.

The Warehouse building market recorded net absorption of negative (544,004) square feet in the third quarter 2015 compared to negative (113,238) square feet in the second quarter 2015, positive 6,351 in the first quarter 2015, and posi- tive 140,434 in the fourth quarter 2014.

VACANCY

The Industrial vacancy rate in the San Francisco market area increased to 3.6% at the end of the third quarter 2015. The vacancy rate was 3.2% at the end of the second quarter 2015, and remained at 3.7% at the end of the first quarter 2015 compared to the previous quarter.

Flex projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.9% at the end of the third quarter 2015, 4.0% at the end of the second quarter 2015, 5.0% at the end of the first quarter 2015, and 5.4% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

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Warehouse projects reported a vacancy rate of 3.5% at the end of the third quarter 2015, 3.0% at the end of second quarter 2015, 3.3% at the end of the first quarter 2015, and 3.1% at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

SUBLEASE VACANCY

The amount of vacant sublease space in the San Francisco market decreased to 337,738 square feet by the end of the third quarter 2015, from 339,249 square feet at the end of the second quarter 2015. There was 333,754 square feet vacant at the end of the first quarter 2015 and 285,144 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

San Francisco’s Flex projects reported vacant sublease space of 159,239 square feet at the end of third quarter 2015, down from the 164,850 square feet reported at the end of the second quarter 2015. There were 186,108 square feet of sub- lease space vacant at the end of the first quarter 2015, and208,699 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

Warehouse projects reported increased vacant sublease space from the second quarter 2015 to the third quarter 2015. Sublease vacancy went from 174,399 square feet to 178,499 square feet during that time. There was 147,646 square feet at the end of the first quarter 2015, and 76,445 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter 2014.

RENTAL RATES
The average quoted asking rental rate for available Industrial space was $17.82 per square foot per year at the end of the third quarter 2015 in the San Francisco market area. This represented a 1.7% increase in quoted rental rates from the end of the second quarter 2015, when rents were reported at $17.52 per square foot.

The average quoted rate within the Flex sector was $28.42 per square foot at the end of the third quarter 2015, while Warehouse rates stood at $13.76. At the end of the sec- ond quarter 2015, Flex rates were $28.53 per square foot, and Warehouse rates were $13.03.

DELIVERIES AND CONSTRUCTION

During the third quarter 2015, no new space was completed in the San Francisco market area. This compares to 0 buildings completed in the second quarter 2015, three buildings totaling 118,080 square feet completed in the first quarter 2015, and nothing completed in the fourth quarter 2014.

There were 293,100 square feet of Industrial space under construction at the end of the third quarter 2015.

Some of the notable 2015 deliveries include: 901 Rankin St, an 82,480-square-foot facility that delivered in first quarter 2015 and is now 100% occupied, and 1 Kelly Ct, a 25,600- square-foot building that delivered in first quarter 2015 and is now 100% occupied.

The largest projects underway at the end of third quarter 2015 were The Cove – Building 3, a 153,047-square-foot building with 0% of its space pre-leased, and The Cove – Building 4, a 140,053-square-foot facility that is 0% pre-leased.

INVENTORY

Total Industrial inventory in the San Francisco market area amounted to 94,065,666 square feet in 4,812 buildings as of the end of the third quarter 2015. The Flex sector consisted of 23,919,746 square feet in 791 projects. The Warehouse sector consisted of 70,145,920 square feet in 4,021 buildings. Within the Industrial market there were 520 owner-occupied buildings accounting for 12,959,398 square feet of Industrial space.

SALES ACTIVITY

Tallying industrial building sales of 15,000 square feet or larger, San Francisco industrial sales figures fell during the sec- ond quarter 2015 in terms of dollar volume compared to the first quarter of 2015.

In the second quarter, 11 industrial transactions closed with a total volume of $88,245,000. The 11 buildings totaled 423,420 square feet and the average price per square foot equated to $208.41 per square foot. That compares to 17 transactions totaling $180,790,000 in the first quarter. The total square footage was 870,221 for an average price per square foot of $207.75.

Total year-to-date industrial building sales activity in 2015 is down compared to the previous year. In the first six months of 2015, the market saw 28 industrial sales transac- tions with a total volume of $269,035,000. The price per square foot has averaged $207.97 this year. In the first six months of 2014, the market posted 30 transactions with a total volume of $275,279,100. The price per square foot averaged $211.04.

Cap rates have been lower in 2015, averaging 4.34%, compared to the first six months of last year when they aver- aged 6.58%.

Full Report: 3rdQTR_Industrial