Source: CoStar News
By: Mark Heschmeyer
Date Posted: November 16, 2016

One group of business owners hasn’t benefitted from the rebound in property prices. Once a real estate mainstay, owner/user purchases of commercial properties by small businesses have declined over the first three quarters of this year, reversing four straight years of increasing sales, CoStar Comps data shows.

small_warehouse_business

Through the first three quarters of this year, owner/user purchases of office, industrial and retail properties ranged from $150,000 to $1.5 million and totaled $8.79 billion. That is down 11% for the same period last year.

By way of comparison, owner/user purchases of properties of more than $1.5 million are ahead of last year’s pace: $20.76 billion for the first three quarters of this year vs. $19.7 billion for the same period last year, which marked a post-recession high.

Higher property prices may be to blame. Property prices in the small business category have been skyrocketing from a low in 2012 of $51.46 per square foot. At the end of September 2016, the average price per square foot for this category had climbed 28% to $66.08 per square foot, fast approaching the 2009 average price peak of nearly $69 per square foot.

By property type, office properties sold in the $150,000 to $1.5 million price range bought by owner/users climbed from an average of $91.12 per square foot in 2012 to $98.61 per square foot at the end of the third quarter of 2016.

Retail prices for such properties bottomed in 2013 at $85.41 per square square foot and are now selling for more than office properties at an average of $99 per square foot.

Prices for industrial properties in the same price range have climbed from an average of $32 per square foot to $42 per square foot for the same period.

At the same time, banks have been cutting back on their real estate lending to small businesses.

Bank lending to small businesses secured by non-residential properties peaked in June 2008. Banks had more than 1.2 million such loans ranging from $100,000 to $1 million on their books at that time totaling $346.6 billion, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. That total had fallen 22% to $271.3 billion at the end of June 2016, the latest data available.

As an interesting side note though, banks make up five of the largest six sellers of properties to small business owner/users in the last two years. Wells Fargo accounted for about $37 million in such sales; PNC Financial Services, $26 million; Fifth Third Bank, $18.5 million; SunTrust Banks, $16.4 million; and Bank of America, $13.5 million, according to CoStar data.

Meanwhile, capital outlays by small businesses has been trending down, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, a small business trade group. The percentage of owners surveyed monthly making an outlay peaked for this recovery in July 2015 at 61% and held close to that through January 2016 but has faded since, according to NFIB’s October data.

The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next three to six months was 27%, an historically weak number. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent expecting better business conditions fell 7 percentage points to a net negative 7%, which means that now, more owners expect that conditions will worsen. Only 9% of small business owners thought that now is a good time to expand.

Link to full article: CoStar-Small Business Lending Decline

Vacancy Remains under 3%; Rents up 3.85%

The San Francisco industrial market ended Q3 2016 with vacancies increasing slightly to 2.8% from Q2 vacancies of 2.7%. Although the vacancy rate reflects a net negative absorption of 16,706 square feet, vacancies remain south of 3% . Reported rents for the same time period have increased by nearly 4%. Sublease vacancy also decreased modestly in Q3 2016 to 200,217 square feet from 173,183 square feet reported in Q2. Conversely, industrial sales activity is up in Q2 2016 with total sale revenues equalling $131,278,489, and averaging $215.42 per square foot, compared to $100,718,100 in revenue, and $204.17 average per square foot in Q1 2016. Year-over-year sales are lower than 2015, but investors are seeing higher CAP rates averaging 5.62% in 2016 compared to 4.47% during the first half of 2015.

San Francisco's Industrial Bayshore Corridor Area

San Francisco’s Industrial Bayshore Corridor Area

The San Francisco industrial leasing activity, as reported by CoStar, for Q3 2016 decreased slightly, however other firms, including Calco Commercial, have reported steady leasing activity with positive absorption rates. Calco Commercial leased several notable industrial properties in Q3 including: 2045 McKinnon Avenue (25,251+/- sf), 650 Potrero Avenue (21,650+/- sf) and 201 Toland (32,580+/- sf land). Calco Commercial leased 61,680+/- square feet in Q2 compared to 125,253+/- square feet in Q3. Due to the continued lack of quality product coupled with no new construction, and the redevelopment of industrial properties into other uses (i.e. residential & office) demand for industrial space persists. For these reasons, now is the time to consider leasing, subleasing, selling or re-positioning your asset.

Calco Commercial is a leading industrial & commercial real estate firm. We have completed more transactions in the industrial market than any other firm in San Francisco. We have decades of experience in Landlord /Owner representation, and repositioning assets into net leased properties with in-place income streams. Calco Commercial is a full service firm that can help make the most of your real estate properties and investments.

Click here to download the full report: Calco Q3 2016 Industrial Report

The Silicon Valley Business Journal has reported that office vacancy rates of 7.5% on the Peninsula are at the “lowest since the turn of the century.” The article notes that the low vacancy rates have been aided by Facebook leasing “135,000 square feet at 162 Jefferson Drive in Menlo Park,” and the 101,000 square foot lease renewal by Shutterstock in Redwood Shores.

Facebook-Menlo Park Office

Facebook-Menlo Park Office

With decreasing vacancies, comes higher costs, and the Peninsula Area does not fall short on expensive rents. According to the article, R&D space averages $4.67 per square foot per month, a .9 increase from Q2,” with Menlo Park demanding the highest rents in the county averaging “$7.65” per square foot for R&D & office space.

San Francisco CRE News:

California’s site-wide ballot measures could have reaching effects on the Bay Area

California voters will be facing a bevy of propositions this November ranging from legalizing recreational marijuana use to affordable housing measures. The San Francisco Chronicle has reported on a list of state-wide ballot initiatives that could potentially affect the real estate market and values in the Bay Area. Specifically, rent control measures Q & R in San Mateo and Burlingame, respectively, “could have a dramatic effect on the (Bay) area’s economy” by placing further restrictions on Property Owner rights and creating an “unaccountable” commission that would cost taxpayers “millions annually.”

voting_web

Another tower to join the San Francisco skyline

The Transbay Terminal project boasts new transit connectivity, public parks, new retail, but is now also becoming a hub for new office tower development. BisNow reported on October 18, 2016, that a new “806 foot tall tower at 546 Howard Street” will join the ranks of the planned tower at 181 Freemont Street and the “Salesforce Tower.” The new tower at 546 Howard Street is slated to have ground floor retail, a 250-room hotel, condos and office space. According to the article, 546 Howard will be the “second tallest residential tower in the city.”

Transbay Terminal Rendering with transparent rendering indicating the Howard Street siteRegistry

Transbay Terminal rendering showing the Howard Street site (transparent building) Registry

12,000 Jobs Coming to Silicon Valley

The Silicon Valley Business Journal, has reported the Beijing tech company LeEco, is slated to bring 12,000 jobs to the Bay Area. LeEco’s employees will operate from their “48-acre office complex in Santa Clara purchased from Yahoo earlier this year for $250 million.”

According to the tech firm’s website LeEco is “a leading global company born from the internet, (LeEco) seamlessly blends devices, content, applications and distribution in a first-of-it kind ecosystem.” LeEco believes in creating an “Eco Lifestyle” as referenced by its “vision to sell smartphones and TVS in the US bundled with easy subscriptions to its premium content.” LeEco was founded in 2004 by YT Jia.

San Francisco CRE News:

Prop W to Raise Transfer Tax on Real Estate Sales

This November, in addition to the affordable housing measure (Prop U), San Francisco voters will also have Prop W on their ballots–otherwise known as the “Real Estate Transfer Tax on Properties Over $5 Million.” Authored by Supervisor Kim, the measure proposes increasing the rate of transfer tax on sales from a current rate of 2% to 2.25% on properties valued at $5-$10 Million; from 2.5% to 2.75% on properties valued at $10+ Million; and, from 2.5% to 3% on properties with a value in excess of $25 Million.

According to the Examiner, the transfer tax will not change on properties valued under $5 Million, which are currently taxed on a progressive tax schedule, with the lowest tax rate of “.68 percent for sales that are more than $250K and less than $1 Million.”

The majority of the Board of Supervisors support the Measure, but Prop W has its opponents as well, namely the San Francisco Apartment Association who fears the tax will have a negative impact on renters–in a city that already has some of the highest rents in the nation.

Related Article: San Francisco Business Times – Prop W

420 Taylor Street Sells for $45 Million

According to BISNOW, the 78,000+/- square foot office building located at 420 Taylor Street in Union Square has sold for $45 Million, or $576 a square foot.

420 Taylor Street Lobby

420 Taylor Street Lobby

420 Taylor “previously was the headquarters for NBC radio affiliate KNBR … and was the first air-conditioned building in the city. It had a secret entrance from the Clift hotel so the celebrities could sneak into the studio undetected. The secret entrance still exists, but is no being used,” the article reports.

Slated Potrero Hill Development would transform industrial warehouse property into dorms for Students of CCA

Socketsite has reported that the corner of Arkansas & 17th Streets in San Francisco’s Potrero Hill neighborhood is planned for a full transformation from a single-story industrial building to a “building (that would) rise up to 48-feet in height” with ground floor retail, bike storage, and a multi-purpose room for students.

75 Arkansas Street

75 Arkansas Street

As industrial spaces continues to disappear in San Francisco as zoning designations change along with redevelopment projects, warehouse and production facilities may become even higher in demand–and/or manufacturers make be forced east and south seeking industrial product.

San Francisco Office Leasing Plummets in Q3

Roland Li of The San Francisco Business Times has reported that office leasing activity in San Francisco has fallen to “the lowest third-quarter activity since 2001.”

While this dramatic decrease may signal a major real estate cool down on the horizon, some industry experts believe the drop in activity is due to the “overheated” market in the past few years. Amber Schiada, director of Northern California research at JLL, is quoted as stating that she “expects rents to stay flat for the next year, but no major downturn (and that) people shouldn’t worry,” the article reported.

SF Skyline_for web

Because office rents have soared over the past consecutive 12 quarters, driven by start-up and tech giants leasing mammoth sized spaces, many other smaller office tenants have been driven from the city. Leveling rents brought upon by the slowdown in office leasing activity could “bring some relief for Tenants”, suggests Li.

Deutsche AM Acquires 35 Property Portfolio

Randyl Drummer of CoStar has reported that Deutsche AM has acquired 3.3 million square feet of industrial properties spanning from San Francisco to Chicago:

Deutsche Asset Management has purchased a 19-property industrial portfolio from International Airport Centers (IAC), with properties totaling 3.3 million square feet in seven U.S distribution markets.

Warehouse

The portfolio consisting of 35 buildings in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Portland and San Diego markets. The portfolio is 99% leased to 76 tenants, with an average tenant size of about 40,000 square feet.

Deutsche AM’s real estate investment business acquired the portfolio on behalf of an institutional investor through direct negotiations with Perlmutter Investment Co., the seller’s investment advisor. Deutsche did not disclose the sale price or other terms of the sale which closed Sept. 22.

“The portfolio’s geographic diversity across large distribution hubs and stable tenant base makes it an attractive investment,” said Todd Henderson, head of alternatives – real estate, Americas.

Deutsche Asset Management’s real estate investment business, part of the bank’s alternatives platform, had $53.6 billion in assets under management as of June 30.

Frankfort, Germany based Deutsche Bank AG, under pressure to shore up its weak capital position, has been advised by some analysts to sell the lucrative asset management business, which is said to be worth up to $9 billion.

San Francisco Commercial Real Estate News:

Investors continue to pay record-setting prices to acquire San Francisco commercial buildings. The San Francisco Business Times reported earlier this week that One Front Street has sold for $521 million, equating to $800 per square foot.

one-front-2

Meanwhile, according to The Registry, 55 Hawthorne is slated to hit the San Francisco commercial market. The 143,000+/- square foot building is expected to earn $120-$125 million.

55-hawthorne-use

And in industrial news, the San Francisco investing continues–The Potrero Power Plant site is reportedly under contract between Associate Capital & NRG Engery. The San Francisco Business Times has reported that Associate Capital sees the industrial, but waterfront, property as “an unprecedented opportunity for infill development.”

power-plant2

San Francisco Tech CRE News:

As the Mission Bay Area continues to attract new tenants, start-ups and tech elites like UBER, a pillar in the tech world is also considering new digs south of the Bay Bridge: ADOBE. According to the San Francisco Business Times, Adobe Systems is eyeing 200,000+/- square feet in the 100 Hooper development–although no paper has been inked to date.

100-hooper

National CRE News:

And across the Atlantic, an investment fund has been created to target US multifamily properties. CoStar News has reported that Hansalnvest, based in Germany, has created a $500 million fund to invest in US Apartments. On the East Coast, Acadia Realty (based in New York) has created a $520 million fund targeting value-add retail investments, while San Francisco based Farallon Capital Management has raised $400 million to invest in commercial properties across the nation.

SocketSite has reported that permits for the 410,000+ square foot, 11-story office campus have been filed by UBER. The modern glass structure, designed by SHoP Architects, is being developed by UBER and Alexandria Real Estate Equities.

The San Francisco Business Times also reported the UBER story, stating that construction will commence by the end of September and the project (which will be located next to the future home of the Warriors) is slated for completion in 2018.

An exterior rendering of the future Uber Headquarters in San Francisco's Mission Bay (Photo courtesy SHoP Architects/Uber)

An exterior rendering of the future Uber Headquarters in San Francisco’s Mission Bay (Photo courtesy SHoP Architects/Uber)

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Source: CoStar News
By: Randyl Drummer
Date Posted: September 1, 2016

CoStar News has reported that U.S. Commercial Real Estate pricing remains strong as the real estate market heads into Q3. Due to a combination of low interest rates and the continual supply of capital, investments in CRE persisted, sparking growth in pricing.

Price Increase for Web

According to CoStar’s Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI), the “value-weighted U.S. Composite Index increased…10.1% from the prior 12-month period, propelling the index 25% above its pre-recession peak level.” However, CoStar projects a moderation in future price growth to a slight decline in deal activity.